Wuhan lab leak plausible, Biden probe into Covid-19 origins finds
Investigation concludes that both a laboratory leak and human exposure to an infected animal are “plausible” explanations for Covid-19’s origin.
Joe Biden’s intelligence probe into the origins of Covid-19 has found a laboratory leak and human exposure to an infected animal are both “plausible” explanations for how the virus started.
But the intensive 90-day investigation by the United States’ intelligence community failed to reach a definitive conclusion about how Covid-19, which has now claimed 4 million lives globally, first occurred.
The Intelligence Community’s findings include that the virus had emerged in Wuhan by November 2019, with the first cluster occurring in December 2019, and that the virus was not developed as a biological weapon.
Most of the intelligence agencies, but not all, “assess with low confidence” that SARS-CoV-2 “probably was not genetically engineered; however two agencies believe there was not sufficient evidence to make an assessment either way”.
This finding will be strongly disputed by dozens of international scientists who have demanded an investigation into the possibility of a laboratory leak and say it is highly possible SARS-CoV-2 was subject to laboratory research, pointing to the unusual features of the virus that have never been seen before in other beta-coronaviruses.
The statement released by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) said that “after examining all available intelligence reporting and other information, though, the IC remains divided on the most likely origin of Covid-19”.
“All agencies assess that two hypotheses are plausible: natural exposure to an infected animal and a laboratory-associated incident,” it stated.
“The IC judges they will be unable to provide a more definitive explanation for the origin of Covid-19 unless new information allows them to determine the specific pathway for initial natural contact with an animal or to determine that a laboratory in Wuhan was handling SARSCoV-2 or a close progenitor virus before COVID-19 emerged.”
There are 17 intelligence agencies that report to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. The unclassified summary of the intelligence report provided to President Biden explained that four elements of the intelligence community and the National Intelligence Council assessed “with low confidence that the initial SARS-CoV-2 infection was most likely caused by natural exposure to an animal infected with it or a close progenitor virus – a virus that probably would be more than 99 per cent similar to SARS-CoV-2.”
These intelligence agencies gave weight to the evidence that suggested Chinese officials did not know about the outbreak in advance and “the numerous vectors for natural exposure”.
One Intelligence Community element had moderate confidence that the first human infection with Covid-19 was the result of a laboratory incident, probably involving the experimentation of the virus, animal handling or sampling by the Wuhan Institute of Virology.
“These analysts give weight to the inherently risky nature of work on coronaviruses,” the ODNI statement said.
But a large part of the intelligence community was unable to reach a view around either hypothesis with any level of confidence.
“Analysts at three IC elements remain unable to coalesce around either explanation without additional information, with some analysts favouring natural origin, others a laboratory origin, and some seeing the hypotheses as equally likely,” the statement said.
“Variations in analytic views largely stem from differences in how agencies weigh intelligence reporting and scientific publications, and intelligence and scientific gaps.”
The intelligence agencies did agree that Covid-19 likely “emerged and infected humans through an initial small-scale exposure that occurred no later than November 2019 with the first known cluster of Covid-19 cases arising in Wuhan, China in December 2019”.
“We judge the virus was not developed as a biological weapon,” the ODNI statement said.
The agencies found that Chinese officials “did not have foreknowledge of the virus before the initial outbreak of Covid-19 emerged”.
The ODNI concluded that China’s co-operation was needed to reach a conclusive assessment on the origins of Covid-19.
Clinical samples and epidemiological data from the earliest Covid-19 cases could alter their evaluation of hypotheses, along with definitive information on a location of interest or “occupational exposure”.
“Beijing, however, continues to hinder the global investigation, resist sharing information and blame other countries, including the United States,” the statement reads.
“These actions reflect, in part, China’s government’s own uncertainty about where an investigation could lead as well as its frustration the international community is using the issue to exert political pressure on China.”
What Really Happened In Wuhan by Sharri Markson will be published by HarperCollins in September and is available for pre-order from Booktopia now.
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