She’s baaaack: La Nina makes it three summers in a row
Australia is headed for a third consecutive summer of increased rain with the expected return of the La Nina weather system.
Australia is headed for a third consecutive summer of increased rain with the expected return of the La Nina weather system that generated devastating flooding in eastern states this year.
The Bureau of Meteorology on Tuesday upgraded its La Nina outlook from “watch” to “alert”, indicating an increased likelihood of yet another La Nina forming in the coming months.
BOM Meteorologist Jonathan How said, historically, La Nina had formed 70 per cent of the time after the outlook had been upgraded to “alert”.
“La Nina means wetter than average conditions for the eastern two-thirds of the country, particularly Queensland, NSW and Victoria,” Mr How said.
“Whether or not we do eventually get La Nina confirmed, we still are looking at a wetter than average spring and summer for many Australians.”
The last time there were three consecutive years of La Nina was from 1998 to 2001.
To make matters even more worrying for those in flood-prone are, a negative Indian Ocean Dipole has also increased the chances of above-average rainfall, especially for those in the west.
“The combination of the two does mean that it’s going to be wetter than usual from two sides of the country,” Mr How said.
“The general messaging is that if you live across eastern Australia, there’s an increased risk of flooding, and you don’t need to tell the average Sydneysider or Brisbane person that the ground is (already) wet.”
While the prospect of yet more above-average rainfall will cause alarm for those affected by flooding earlier this year, it is expected to yield another bumper year of agricultural production.
The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences said Australia was headed for its second highest production year.
“Generally, the favourable weather systems, be it La Nina or negative Indian Ocean Dipole, have a positive impact on aggregate agricultural production in the country,” ABARES executive director Jared Greenville said.
“We’ve had three remarkable years in aggregate sense for the sector.”
Increased rain generated by the La Nina two years ago saw the sector’s value increase to $68 billion. Last year, the value rose to a record $83bn.
“It’s taken couple of years for livestock, given how low the national herd and flocks got, but that rebuilding … is really starting to come through at the moment,” Dr Greenville said.
“So there’s increased potential for higher production given we’ve got that base of capital stock and the way to put it has been rebuilt over the last few years.”
While it is mostly good news for farmers, La Nina can have localised negative impacts.
Flooding this year led to spikes in vegetable prices after farmers struggled to plant and harvest their crops due to sustained wet conditions.
AUSVEG chief executive Michael Coote said the nature of La Nina meant it could both help and hinder fruit and vegetable growers.
“It will be challenging in different regions, depending on where those rainfall patterns end up,” he said.
“That’s been a challenge this year for a lot of crops where ground has been either too heavy to plant or it’s been too heavy to harvest.
“It’s better than being in drought. The dams and aquifers are full so hopefully that will stand the industry in good stead for a few years after the end of the La Nina pattern.”
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