Sharp drop in coronavirus death rate

People in their 60s have gone from having one death for every 50 Covid cases before November 25, 2021, to one death for every 1040 in the two months to January 26.

The improvement in the survival rates varied significantly between age groups, but even in those aged 90 and above it was dramatic.

Australians who tested positive for Covid between January 2020 and late November 2021 died at more than 14 times the rate of those who caught the virus during the subsequent two months since the Omicron wave hit our shores.

The statistics clearly demonstrate a dramatic reduction in the risk posed by the comparatively mild variant of the virus at a time when double-dose vaccination coverage among Australians aged 16 and above reached 86 per cent and rose to 93 per cent.

They also show that Australians aged 20 to 29 made up more than 26 per cent of all Covid cases in the past two months, despite comprising only 14.4 per cent of the population, while more young women caught the virus than men since Omicron emerged, reversing the trend from the first 22 months of the pandemic.

The Australian’s analysis of federal Health Department data does not account for deaths that occurred after January 31, and it also cannot account for what experts estimate are likely to be hundreds of thousands of Covid cases that have not been officially reported over summer, due to difficulties accessing rapid antigen tests, delays processing PCR tests, and large numbers of extremely mild or asymptomatic infections.

From January 2020 to November 25, 2021, there were 203,148 Covid infections in Australia and 2132 deaths of people with Covid, working out to one death per 95 cases.

From November 26 last year to January 31 this year, 1,463,254 people were infected with the virus and 1438 died with it, lengthening the death rate to one per 1018 cases – almost 11 times more cases for every death.

The improvement in the survival rates varied significantly between age groups, but even in those aged 90 and above it was dramatic. Prior to November 25, one in three of those aged 90 and above who were infected with Covid died with the virus. Between November 26 and January 26, there was one death for every 15 cases in the age group – or five times more cases for every death.

 

Those in their 20s had the most significant improvement in their odds of surviving of any age group, going from one death for every 4465 cases to one for every 95,476 – more than 21 times more cases for every fatality. Those in their 50s, 60s and 70s also had a significant improvement in their survival rates, at 17 or 18 times more cases for every fatality.

The age breakdown of Covid fatalities has remained relatively constant, however, showing the risk of death remains greatest for those aged 70 and above.

Eighty per cent of deaths up to November 25 last year were among those aged 70 and above, rising to 86 per cent in the subsequent period to January 31.

Only 3.7 per cent of deaths up to November 25 last year were among those aged 50 and under, falling to 3 per cent since then.

There were 7.2 times more Covid cases from November 25 last year to January 31 than there were in the preceding 22 months. Infection rates were not evenly spread across age groups. Children aged nine or under made up almost 15 per cent of cases up to November 25, 2021, but only 8.7 per cent of those since.

The increase in total infections for 0 to 9-year-olds was 4.2 times in the past two months, compared with the previous 22 months, but 20 to 29-year-olds recorded 9.5 times as many infections when comparing the two periods.

While males aged 10 to 39 had previously been more likely to catch Covid than females of the same age, that trend reversed in the two months to January 26.