Why Scott Morrison should have called a snap poll

Prime Minister Scott Morrison during a press conference at Parliament House in Canberra. Picture: Kym Smith

The way things are going, Scott Morrison will only ever get one chance to lead the Liberals to an election. If the Coalition government is erased by the voters, that will be it for the Prime Minister, so he might as well do it his way, captain’s calls and all.

It suits his style. Morrison is happiest flying solo. If what he does and the way he does it works, brilliant; if not, well, it was a lost cause from the outset, and it could have been worse if you-know-who had been leading them. For the Turnbull haters, that would be Malcolm Turnbull; for Turnbull lovers it would be Peter Dutton.

There is always the possibility, in the same way that in theory anything is possible, Morrison could pull off the unimaginable to win the unwinnable. Bill Shorten as a double-barrelled risk to borders and the economy, with a combined softening of offshore pro­cessing and $200 billion worth of great big new taxes, could turn into Morrison’s John Hewson a la 1993, or his Kim Beazley a la 2001 or his Mark Latham a la 2004.

The strategy that Morrison is now employing is a version of Kill Bill on steroids, one of the most ­potent weapons in the government armoury. Actually one of the few.

As Liberals, serving and retired, fearing people had stopped listening, spent summer poring over the electoral pendulum to see which seats they could win from Labor, only to land reasonably confidently on just one (Herbert), they came to the conclusion that their only option was, as a veteran campaigner put it, a shock-and-awe campaign against Shorten. A ferocious battle designed to render Shorten a completely unacceptable alternative, a weak, reckless man in hock to the unions, posing undeniable dangers of slowing down the economy while speeding up the arrival of illegal boats.

When Morrison addressed the National Press Club on Monday it was as close to a political sweet spot as his government has had since he assumed the leadership. Morrison struck the appropriate tone, the content was coherent if not inspiring, and his presentation was both strong and confident. It was, mercifully, as free of hyperbole as any political speech can be and for once there was no hyperventilating. He was something people haven’t seen often enough: prime ministerial. There needs to be more of it.

It provided a much-needed fillip for his beleaguered troops.

The timing of his appearance, on the day before parliament resumed, with the Opposition Leader tightly wedged on an issue of strength for the government, was perfect.

It was shaping as a unique situation. A once-in-a-90-year-loss of a vote by the government in the lower house on the medical evacuation of asylum-seekers from offshore detention centres begging to be cast as a victory, with the government skilfully fashioning a ­triumph from the jaws of defeat. When it came, the vote was ­humiliating. There is also no doubt the government will campaign heavily against Shorten over it, but threats of holding him responsible for future boat arrivals had a slightly hollow ring. There was something missing. The man forced by the parliament to implement the new laws it had just imposed on him in the face of the most dire threats was calling the other guy weak.

The government had just suffered a defeat on a measure it had claimed was unconstitutional, which it predicted would open the floodgates to illegal boat arrivals and wreck border protection as we know it, yet Morrison’s initial response had an air about it of yet another lecture to Labor about what naughty boys and girls they were.

In some respects it would have been better if Morrison had seized the initiative and called an election now on this issue. His earlier warnings that he would brook no compromise to existing laws could have been accompanied by a warning that defeat on an issue he argues is central to Australia’s ­security and wellbeing would have been tantamount to a vote of no confidence in the government.

On Tuesday night after the vote, if he really, truly wanted people to believe Shorten’s changes were so dangerous, the Prime Minister would have made the short drive to Yarralumla before he stood up in the blue room.

More predictably, Labor also had no interest in treating the issue as one of no confidence. That definitely was not part of its game plan. Everyone from Anthony Albanese down was dancing around it, ­saying yes it was a big deal the government was defeated on the floor of the house, but not such a big deal the government should go to an election on it. Albanese even went so far as to say the system had not been changed and there was no difference between the government and the opposition on offshore processing.

All Labor wanted yesterday was for the issue to disappear. That told you there was genuine anxiety internally on this for Labor and Shorten.

Labor scurried back to banks while the government kept shouting about boats.

Of course border protection will still be a negative for Shorten in May when the election is expected, but it may not have the fire around it that it does now, unless a boat arrives, and even then, you can bet Labor and assorted cynics will be claiming it was waved through rather than turned back to make a political point.

Yesterday, keen to counter the ­accusation his rhetoric was inviting or inciting an armada, Morrison did his best Stormin’ Norman (Schwarzkopf), sending a direct message to anyone thinking of getting on a boat: “I’m here and I will stop you.”

It is true Morrison does have two impediments to calling an election now. The first is the NSW election scheduled for March 23, and the second is that the budget is not finished. They are not insurmountable.

It is not ideal, but federal and state campaigns can be run concurrently, with the vote on different days. The budget is close enough to being finished — or it should be — given it has been brought forward to April 2. Morrison and Treasurer Josh Frydenberg could have had it wrapped in a week, then run with it all the way to polling day.

Announcing a surplus in the house might not provide the government with the electoral big bang it is hoping for, particularly if Labor produces an even bigger one. It is just possible Morrison has missed a moment.