What if Costello were leader of the Liberal Party?

IT is not often that an opportunity presents itself in Australian politics to use science fiction to analyse events. But pause for a moment and consider what the federal political contest would look like right now if we existed in a parallel universe and Peter Costello had stayed on to become Liberal leader.

Kevin Rudd's grip on the prime ministership would be looking very shaky indeed. After the home roof insulation disaster, the backdown on the emissions trading scheme and the series of broken election promises such as building 260 childcare centres, grocery watch and fuel watch, the government would be vulnerable to Costello's powerful parliamentary performances.

The talent on the opposition's front bench also would be significantly improved. Malcolm Turnbull would still be there, possibly as shadow treasurer. Julie Bishop would be a valuable senior shadow, not having been damaged by a promotion she couldn't handle. Brendan Nelson, along with present leader Tony Abbott, would be excellent lieutenants to Costello, presumably along with other senior Howard-era ministers such as Nick Minchin (and possibly even Alexander Downer) who in reality have left or are about to leave.

The opposition would have been in a better position to pitch to voters that the Rudd experiment had failed and voters could return their support to the Coalition and get the same experienced line-up that governed for nearly 12 years, minus John Howard, of course.

Granted, the parallel universe hypothesis includes several assumptions that may not have held true in this universe. Costello would need to have been loyally served by his subordinates, something he didn't believe would happen (one of the reasons he chose to decline the leadership).

The Liberal Party would need to break from its tradition of descending into infighting when relegated to opposition.

And the series of poor decisions the Rudd government made might not have happened if the opposition had been better at holding the government to account, as it surely would have with Costello running things.

Nevertheless, now that the Coalition has hit the lead on Newspoll's two-party vote for the first time in four years, even without the strong line-up I have referred to, you would have to think there are a few private regrets in the minds of conservative strategists who crave a return to power (not to mention among incumbent and former MPs).

The concept of the parallel universe derives from the notion in physics of the metaverse, a hypothetical group of universes that together encapsulate all that exists in space and time. While H. G. Wells popularised the idea of parallel universes in his book The Time Machine, written in 1895, it was Edwin Abbott who first floated the idea of different dimensions about a decade earlier.

The parallel universe of a Costello-led Coalition would be better placed to attack the government over its spending, inability to control the banks that have been putting interest rates up faster than the Reserve Bank has been increasing them, and the sizeable build up of government debt.

Costello is the classic example of a politician not necessarily liked by the wider public but respected for the job he did as Treasurer.

The contrast with Rudd after his capitulation on matters he described as moral imperatives would have been political gold for the Coalition. Costello would have been able to reminisce about his preparedness to fight an election on the GST, as unpopular as it was, because he believed it was in the national interest, all the while reminding voters that Rudd walked away from doing the same on the ETS, despite his strong rhetoric about its importance.

While Tony Abbott has been successful in exposing some of Rudd's weaknesses by making voters sit up and question whether the Prime Minister is all he claims to be, the danger for the Coalition is that improved polling numbers will cause voters to look at it as more than just a rabble-rousing opposition. They will start to be seen as an alternative government. That tag could see interest in Abbott morph into a concern about whether he was someone voters really wanted as their prime minister. Labor strategists certainly think that is what will happen now that the Coalition's polling numbers are once again credible. "Too erratic to be trusted with the keys to the Lodge" will become the Labor line about Abbott as we get closer to the election. Costello wouldn't have suffered from such attacks.

Australia's longest serving Treasurer is gone from politics for good. While in the 1980s credible suggestions emerged that included bringing former prime minister Malcolm Fraser out of retirement or finding a seat for businessman and party president John Elliott to take over the leadership (both ideas now seem absurd), modern politics is too professionalised to consider resurrecting Costello. But that won't stop Liberals lamenting what could have been if he hadn't left in the first place.

WHEN Turnbull approached Abbott about filling the shadow cabinet vacancy left by Minchin earlier this year, the idea really was unthinkable. With another vote on the ETS looming, Abbott could hardly promote Turnbull knowing he intended to cross the floor, thus breaking shadow cabinet solidarity. So Abbott rejected the offer and Turnbull announced his retirement. Since then politics has been turned on its head with Rudd's cowardly decision to walk away from implementing the ETS. There will be no vote on the scheme this term.

Turnbull has also decided to stay in politics and, given that Abbott has declared if the Coalition wins the next election Turnbull would get a "very senior" frontbench role, the Opposition Leader should offer it to him now.

If he doesn't, Abbott will look as though he never really thought a victory were likely. Or he would be allowing one member of his shadow cabinet to continue in a role they will be dumped from as soon as the election is won. Andrew Peacock promoted Howard six months before the 1990 election in a bid to bolster his line-up. Howard had spent enough time licking his wounds after being defeated for the leadership in 1989.

Given that Turnbull is electorally appealing to small-1 liberals and has economic credibility, Abbott should bring him into the tent to help, lest Turnbull starts doing the proverbial from outside it. That is, unless Abbott simply doesn't trust Turnbull to work and play well with others.