Victorian election: from one who knows, there’s an upset ahead

Jeff Kennett says don't be surprised if there is an upset in the Victorian election.

The public rarely vote for oppos­itions. They vote for or against the government of the day.

In the Victorian election in 1999, on the Monday before polling, there was an expectation my government would win comfortably. A Herald Sun poll put us 6 per cent ahead of the ALP. But the polls were wrong and we lost when three independents joined with Labor to form government.

No regrets — just the democratic process at work.

I sense history is repeating itself in Victoria. Except for one ­moment, the Andrews government has been leading in the polls and is increasing its lead. But until recently 27 per cent of the electorate either did not know there was an election or were undecided.

Four years ago the ALP was fraudulently using public moneys for its own electoral purposes — the Red Shirts Affair — and then spent voters’ money trying to stop it becoming public. Recently we saw Premier Daniel Andrews ­refuse to allow the 21 MPs, including six ministers, be interviewed by police over the scam, having previou­sly said that everyone would ­co-operate.

Jeff Kennett announces his resignation as Premier in 1999.

It’s an open display of hypocrisy — a government that believes it need not be held to standards or to account. It thumbs its nose at the law, treating voters as mugs.

The Andrews government ­recently signed a secret Belt and Road Initiative agreement with the Chinese. It was kept dark for political purpose. The BRI is not a friendship agreement. It has come to represent in other countries the massive investment of Chinese money in infrastructure projects. Smaller countries might not be able to affor­d the interest payments and the Chinese then ­secure control of the assets and also an extraordinary influence over those countries.

Andrews was refusing to ­release the details of his agreement with the Chinese. Then on Sunday night — Remembrance Day, and while Melbourne was still coming to grips with Friday’s terrorist attack — he sneakily release­d the deal he had struck on October 6. Andrews has no ­authority to commit to such an agreement — it’s federal territory.

Simply put, these are outcomes you cannot trust this Premier to deliver in the public interest, given his betrayal of trust on other matters. Imagine if we had released a document of that magnitude at that time on that day. We would have been torn to shreds.

Premier of Victoria Daniel Andrews at a press conference on the weekend.

These issues go to the core of the values of the senior people at the heart of the Andrews government — issues of character and ­integrity — but Andrews shows no care or interest.

Then there are other public policy issues that are in plain sight — the tearing up of the East West contract at a cost of $1.2 billion, the continuing attack on the volunteer CFA fire brigade, the destruction of the taxi industry. The list goes on. There is another telltale sign. Labor usually has good campaign managers. Last week it went into meltdown over deals with other parties, causing personal, factional and electoral harm to so many of its candidates and supporters. Below the surface, the ALP was eating its own. And the Greens in Labor’s inner seats are on the march. They could take five.

Then on Friday we had another act of violence and death on the streets of Melbourne. The city lost Sisto Malaspina, the heart and soul of the iconic Pellegrini’s restaur­ant and one of our great characters.

While not the government’s fault, it reinforces the point that ­violence against individuals has surged on this Premier’s watch. Whether it be home invasions or gang riots, this government has mishandled the increasing incid­ence of crime. It has failed its first obligation — to keep citizens safe.

So, with only a matter of days left, and pre-polling under way, a question is being asked: can the Andrews government hang on? I think not. Opposition Leader Matthe­w Guy is campaigning quiet­ly and ­effectively. He is open, forthcoming and not running from the police. The ALP, because of its own arrogance and campaign­ing ­errors, will struggle to form government, a ramshackle coalition with the directionless Greens its only hope.

I remain confident the public don’t get elections wrong. I think we are in for a repeat of the 1999 Kennett government experience — a surprise. Back then, all the pundits and the pollsters — even the then premier — thought we had done enough, and would win. We were all wrong. History is about to repeat itself.

Jeff Kennett is a former premier of Victoria (1992-99).