Turnbull's presence looms large on political horizon

MALCOLM Turnbull's decision to go back on his commitment to retire at the next election was as difficult for him to arrive at as was his original decision to quit.

Turnbull knows there will be inevitable barbs about backflips and stalking for Tony Abbott's job. On the latter point, Labor ministers have begun their assault. But Turnbull also knows that in the context of Kevin Rudd's embarrassing U-turn on introducing an emissions trading scheme by next year, his change of heart is minor.

It may not be minor, however, in the context of the Liberal Party's future. If Abbott somehow manages to pull off a remarkable victory against the Labor Party after one term in power, as the latest Newspoll indicates is a possibility, he has committed to Turnbull serving in a very senior role. He presumably would take some sort of economic portfolio in what are uncertain financial times.

Meanwhile, Turnbull will need to bide his time on the back bench.

If, as is likelier, Abbott fails to win the next election, Turnbull's parliamentary presence will quickly loom large anyway, as a leadership contender or as an important part of the opposition's frontbench team.

The significance of Turnbull's ongoing role in either scenario means his decision not to retire has changed the shape of politics in this country, at least for the foreseeable future. Turnbull is too big a player in parliamentary politics, too interesting and too talented not to receive significant media attention. He genuinely recognises that the Liberal leadership may never be something he again gets hold of, but he also knows that, from opposition in particular, anything can happen.

Although reports have suggested Turnbull wanted to continue in politics because he changed his mind on the Coalition's chances of victory at the next election, believing it could now win, Turnbull's real reason for staying is more complicated and emotional.

It involves his early surprise at the number of good wishes he received after announcing his plans to retire. (He used the weeks following his announced departure to monitor blogs, Twitter and email to the point where he started to have regrets, as friends told The Weekend Australian.) During this time he realised that when it came to an extra-parliamentary career he had nothing left to prove. While Turnbull's family had been the chief agitator for him to put politics behind him, outraged by the way they felt he had been treated late last year, they soon saw the passion he still had to engage in public debate about political decision-making.

Public service is something Turnbull has always enjoyed, whether it was leading the charge on the republic referendum more than a decade ago or commissioning taxation reform options as a backbencher.

In both these instances Turnbull displayed a lack of judgment about what the community wanted and how colleagues would react. Such aloofnesswill need to be remedied if he is to make a success of his second coming in politics.

As will the perception, if not the reality, of being indiscreet. Turnbull described himself on the ABC's Australian Story last year as "the soul of indiscretion". After his arrival in John Howard's cabinet, it started to leak. After he lost the leadership showdown with Brendan Nelson following the 2007 election defeat, Nelson quickly started to be undermined. When Abbott defeated Turnbull for the leadership last December, a private conversation between Turnbull and Julie Bishop in which she allegedly bagged Abbott leaked.

At one level skulduggery is expected in politics, but practitioners need to be discreet. Turnbull would do well to steer clear of low-grade political manoeuvring. Apart from anything else, he isn't much good at it.

While Wentworth Liberals and Liberal organisational strategists were delighted to see Turnbull prolong his political career, many of his parliamentary colleagues weren't, including former friends and allies. The reason, at least in part, is because he could upset the apple cart of others' ambitions. It is also because many fear Turnbull won't be able to control those parts of his character that saw his first stint as leader end in failure.

But history tells us overcoming flaws from a first period as party leader is possible, Howard being the supreme example. He was an ideologist without interpersonal skills when he was Liberal leader in the 1980s. By the time he returned in 1995, Howard had used his wilderness years to improve his skills set to better manage a partyroom, the media and public expectations. There are no guarantees Turnbull will be able to morph through the same process, but his preparedness to stay on in politics is a sign he wants to try.

Important for Turnbull's efforts to rehabilitate is the fact Howard is a strong supporter. Recognising Turnbull's appeal to moderate liberals, and his potential to learn and grow into a strong political leader, Howard encouraged Turnbull to stay in the game.

The key to Turnbull's future in politics will be a new-found caution and, more imperatively, patience for higher office. He needs to understand that while he has been successful in numerous life adventures, nothing prepares someone for politics like practice at politicking. Turnbull's political experience in and outside of the parliament has almost always ended in failure. He needs to work out why and rectify the reasons.

So long as Turnbull's ongoing interest in politics doesn't end in a Mark Latham-style implosion or the white-anting of colleagues if things don't go his way, him hanging around can be only good for conservative politics. It will mean other private-sector careerists consider a political career, strengthening the breadth of options Liberals have for future leaders and senior contributors.

Once upon a time, an old-fashion approach to politics existed in this country whereby people with successful careers outside of the partisan struggle looked to spend time in parliament serving on committees and shaping the government's approach to policy-making. That style of representative still exists in Britain and, to a lesser extent, the US. If Turnbull doesn't re-emerge as a leadership option yet decides to stay on in parliament contributing to policy and debate in other ways, it would be a step back in time. While the man himself insists that is an option, few believe such a trajectory would satisfy him.

Make no mistake: for Turnbull to become a leadership contender again he has a lot of repair work to do with his colleagues, not to mention the wider Liberal Party membership, which was overwhelmingly outraged by his desire to pass Rudd's ETS (which he still believes was the right course of action). While Turnbull was proven wrong politically on that front, as the PM's capitulation on the issue highlights, only time will tell whether the policy imperatives were also wrong.