Turnbull now Liberal leader in name only

IN a desperate bid to win the battle over the ETS within his partyroom, Malcolm Turnbull has lost the war - that is, retaining his leadership through to the next election. He is now a political dead man walking.

It will be a long hot summer for Turnbull as his colleagues use the media to tear him to pieces - backgrounding against him, jumping on his every misstep and reminding people that the leader who said he wouldn't lead a party not as committed to climate change as he is, is still clinging to the leadership.

Turnbull has made miscalculation after miscalculation on emissions trading. His inexperience has been the mark of his handling of this issue.

First, Turnbull didn't consult widely enough within his partyroom about his overall strategy - and by the time he realised this, the backbench was already turning against him.

Second, Turnbull tried to make the ETS a leadership issue. His detractors happily took the bait and have stepped up their efforts to undermine him ever since.

Don't forget Turnbull's satisfaction ratings are at historic lows - he didn't have the authority to twist colleagues' arms on this issue.

Third, Turnbull tried to gild the lily with the media about the level of support he had inside the partyroom for his ETS stance.

The chaos in the partyroom yesterday, and the coming out against Turnbull's ETS position by the likes of Tony Abbott and Andrew Robb have put paid to that misrepresentation.

Fourth, when a chance remained to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat, Turnbull refused requests for a secret ballot on the ETS issue. A secret ballot would have broken convention in the federal Liberal Party, but that is not why Turnbull opposed it - he was afraid he would lose the vote. And he might well have.

His final miscalculation was declaring the partyroom result while the senators were in the chamber for a division. It was political suicide.

The Liberals are a rabble, and responsibility for that rests with Turnbull - his leadership style, his tactics (or lack thereof), and his disregard for his colleagues on the back bench.

The ETS will get through the senate so long as Turnbull survives the week - but with Liberals galore crossing the floor, Turnbull won't get through the summer.

He is now leader of the Liberal Party in name only - his leadership is terminal.