The absence of Malcolm Turnbull from the federal leadership is being blamed for a sharp drop in the Liberal vote in inner Melbourne as the Coalition attempts to save several key seats, including Kooyong and Higgins.
Senior Liberals believe Mr Turnbull’s centrist views, including embracing same-sex marriage, were a significant positive for the Coalition in key inner-Melbourne seats including Kooyong (12.8 per cent), Higgins, (10.1 per cent) and Goldstein (12.7 per cent).
The party also believes its chances of securing the inner-city Labor seat of Macnamara (formerly Melbourne Ports with a Labor margin of 1.2 per cent) have taken a significant blow after Mr Turnbull was dumped from the federal leadership.
As Josh Frydenberg grapples with the anti-Coalition backlash in Kooyong, party strategists are concerned the three Coalition seats are under pressure in part because of the leadership change.
“Things have gone pear-shaped since Turnbull lost the job. They liked him in the inner-city seats,’’ a senior MP told The Australian.
The Coalition is struggling in Victoria as voters respond unenthusiastically to the core Liberal messages aimed at Queensland and NSW. While issues like boatpeople resonate in northern Australia, it has little resonance in southern Australia. The Treasurer is facing a battle in his inner-Melbourne seat from high-profile lawyer turned Greens candidate Julian Burnside.
The pair yesterday appeared on electronic billboards at the busy intersection at Kew Junction. The inner seats of Kooyong, Goldstein and Higgins would not normally be in any discussions over the potential for the government to lose the seats. But the horrid run in the polls, with the government now trailing 54-46 per cent nationally, according to Newspoll, has sparked panic among many MPs.
Based on the state election results, Mr Frydenberg would still win Kooyong but may have a significant fight. He will spend between $500,000 and $1 million to save the seat but the Kooyong Liberals will continue to fund some marginal seat MPs as well.
Kooyong is not funded by Liberal headquarters. Senior party figures are hopeful the poor showing in the polls under Scott Morrison will improve as the Coalition scare campaign kicks in. “It will improve,” a Coalition MP said. “We just have to keep pushing as hard as we can. The economic narrative will pull things back.’’
Meanwhile, in Kooyong, left-wing lobby group GetUp is preparing to intensify its activities in the seat and in Higgins. The group will meet at the Hawthorn Library tomorrow to conduct call-out training with the aim of opposing the Coalition. “Elections are upon us and we need to vote out the hard right,’’ GetUp said in a note to supporters.
“MPs like (Peter) Dutton, (Tony) Abbott and (Kevin) Andrews have been standing in the way of any progress on climate action, open democracy and a fair society. We have a strategy that works! Research and our own experience tell us that the only way to shift votes is to have one-on-one, meaningful, persuasive conversations with voters. We did it in 2016 and now we are raising the bar!
“So we are going to vote out the hard right by making one million calls into their electorates before the election.”
Miners change tune on climate change
Peak mining industry body The Minerals Council of Australia has joined the fight on climate.
Easy to point the finger
Demanding we abandon coal for climate is akin to asking NZ to give up love affair with sheep.