Turnbull has two choices and both lead to oblivion

MALCOLM Turnbull got the shock of his political life when 35 of his colleagues voted for a leadership spill without there even being a viable challenger.

Had seven more Liberals supported the spill, Turnbull probably wouldn't have even contested the ballot that followed.

Kevin Andrews may have stepped aside, after which either Tony Abbott would have been elected unopposed, or the vote would have been delayed for other challengers such as Andrew Robb or Joe Hockey to consider their interest.

Humbled and humiliated, Turnbull now has something to think about. Does he go on attempting to crash or crash through issues on which he now knows a large number of his colleagues disagree?

Or does he become a more reflective leader, mirroring the concerns of the parliamentarians he represents but often doesn't agree with? It is a terrible predicament.

The great difficulty for Turnbull with this choice is that both roads almost certainly lead to political oblivion, such is the damage he has incurred this week.

When senior Liberals come to terms with the fact Turnbull's personal ratings are a drag on the Liberal vote, then that is almost inevitably when he will be replaced, possibly in the New Year (if he gets that far).

While the problems this week were exacerbated by Turnbull's approach when confronting dissenters on Tuesday, the divisions inside the parliamentary team go deeper than their leader.

Conservatives and moderates are in a battle to the death over what the modern Liberal Party should represent. Conservatives, used to their dominance in the Howard years, aren't happy about the rise in responsibility of the likes of Christopher Pyne.

Moderates can sense that without Howard, conservatives are vulnerable. Some want to press their advantage while they have it, well remembering the way they felt sidelined when in government.

While policy disagreements might be driving the divide, highlighted this week with the ETS, differences in personality are just as important.

If Turnbull is replaced by a conservative, you can bet the Turnbull forces of today will become the Hockey forces of tomorrow - undermining Abbott or Robb. We know they will be vicious because we saw them in action against Brendan Nelson.