Putative PM must wake up

TONY Abbott's net satisfaction rating has plummeted in the latest Newspoll from positive 10 four weeks earlier to minus 8.

Meanwhile, Julia Gillard's net satisfaction rating has lifted from positive 12 to positive 15.

Some inside the Coalition might start to wonder whether this is the beginning of the end for the Opposition Leader, despite the two-party-preferred vote sitting at 50-50. They shouldn't let such thinking take over just yet.

Part of Abbott's decline can be put down to the fact he has now been confirmed as Opposition Leader, not Prime Minister. In mid-September when the previous poll was conducted, Abbott had spent 17 days basking in the glory of the self-styled title of prime minister-in-waiting, while the independents were making up their minds.

The title carried a certain gravitas (albeit self-delusional), and with that a boost in support. Before the period of uncertainty over who would form government, Abbott's net satisfaction rating was exactly what it is now.

If you throw in the damage done to Abbott over his jet lag comments as an excuse for not visiting Australian troops with Gillard, the downturn in his support might be just a one-off.

It will be interesting to see how the public responds to the revelations that Gillard knew Abbott was planning to visit Afghanistan when she took a cheap (and un-prime ministerial) shot at him.

Even so, the low net satisfaction rating for Abbott should act as a wake-up call.

The two-party vote is neck and neck because voters remain uncertain about the core competence of the government. (Why wouldn't they be?)

That presents the opposition with an opportunity, to be sure. But the low ratings for Abbott will need to turn around or else closer to polling day the public might not want to entrust him with the keys to The Lodge.

The best way to fix that is by running a positive agenda, not simply a negative one.