Pressure on Rudd as Abbott gets some satisfaction

SINCE assuming the Liberal leadership, Tony Abbott has set about slowly but surely improving his support in the electorate, to the point where, according to Newspoll, he has almost overtaken Kevin Rudd on the all-important net satisfaction rating.

Abbott started with a net satisfaction rating (the percentage of voters satisfied with his performance minus the percentage who are dissatisfied) of just +5, which briefly fell to +2 before rising to +7, and which is now +10.

When Brendan Nelson became Liberal leader his rating quickly fell from +17 to +9 to -9.

Malcolm Turnbull started with a rating of +25, slightly higher at the time than Rudd's net satisfaction rating of +24. But it didn't take long for his support to slump, eventually falling off a cliff following the OzCar fake email saga, which saw him set a record low for an opposition leader (-33).

The early indications are that voters seem to be giving Abbott the benefit of the doubt, just as Rudd's support is dipping. As recently as last October, Rudd's rating had risen to +43. But since then it has steadily fallen away.

What will concern Labor strategists is that the trend lines suggest Abbott's support could continue to grow while the Prime Minister's may not stabilise.

That would make Rudd an electoral liability right at a time when Abbott is showing signs of becoming an electoral asset. It would change the campaigning dynamics in an election year.

Conservatives, however, should not start popping champagne corks just yet. Abbott started with a lower net satisfaction rating than either of his predecessors (+5 compared with +17 for Nelson and +25 for Turnbull).

That he is now on level pegging with Rudd says more about the Prime Minister's declining popularity than it does about anything else.