Political gamble worth taking

MALCOLM Turnbull needs the legitimacy a secret ballot in the Liberal partyroom would give to his preference to pass an amended ETS.

Without it, backbiting against his leadership will continue. However, he is probably afraid that such a ballot would turn into a proxy vote on his leadership and that he would lose, embarrassing him badly in the process and perhaps even ending his leadership.

I wouldn't bet on that. Allowing for a secret ballot does set a dangerous precedent. If representatives can't stand up for what they believe in in the partyroom, when will they?

But without such a vote shadow ministers don't get a voice in the partyroom. And if Turnbull decides to pursue the ETS without one he will be exposed to ongoing criticism by his detractors that he hasn't followed the party's will.

Consider the following: Turnbull can't walk away from a deal with the government on the ETS with his credibility intact no matter how dismissive it is of his proposed amendments (especially having already given in on agriculture). He staked his leadership on climate change (another reason a secret ballot can be justified). If the shadow cabinet recommends to the partyroom not to pass the ETS because the government's amendments are not adequate, it may be correct in policy terms but Turnbull will be left looking like he was rolled by party sceptics and the media, and the government will tear him to pieces.

If Turnbull runs a standard consensus partyroom meeting without a vote, and at the end of it determines that he has the party's support to pass an amended ETS, his detractors will claim he ignored the will of the party and go on undermining him.

However, by calling for a secret ballot, Turnbull just might have the numbers to win the day. He should not be afraid of this option (other than for the dangerous precedent it sets). After all, Turnbull staked his leadership on climate change. If he can't convince his party to follow him (which I suspect he narrowly could) he should be prepared to be a man of his word and walk away.

If Turnbull baulks at this risky option, it will be his final miscalculation in a series of blunders on how best to handle the ETS issue.

It is not the first time Turnbull has failed to win people over to a popular position because of poor strategising. Think back a decade to the republic debate. The similarities are remarkable.

The republic campaign ultimately failed because monarchists and direct election republicans teamed up to defeat his model for selecting a president. A decade later and inside the Liberal Party, climate change sceptics and believers who oppose the government's ETS model have ganged up to thwart Turnbull's desire to negotiate a peaceful outcome.

Turnbull's predicament now is that he is a wounded leader with record low satisfaction numbers. Many of his colleagues don't think he will survive as leader all the way to the next election, much less win it even if he does.