PM on verge of becoming a drag on Labor vote

100317 graphic pollies

FOR only the second time in nearly 2 1/2 years, Kevin Rudd's net satisfaction rating as Prime Minister is lower than that of the opposition leader - the first being Malcolm Turnbull's very first poll as leader.

Rudd's net satisfaction rating - the percentage of voters satisfied with his performance minus the percentage who are dissatisfied - has dropped to +7, while Tony Abbott's is steady at +9.

The Prime Minister's declining net satisfaction rating is starting to be a real problem for him and his government. After fluctuating between +22 and +57 during the first half of his prime ministership, it steadily rose from a near low of +23 during the financial crisis to +43 in the wake of Turnbull's involvement in the OzCar fake email saga.

Since that time, however, it has been in rapid decline, to the point where it has now reached an all-time low.

What must be worrying Rudd's colleagues is that while he only narrowly trails Abbott on the net satisfaction rating, Abbott's rating isn't especially high. The Opposition Leader started low and has stayed there, albeit with marginal movement north (+5 to +9). Labor always thought Abbott would struggle with a lack of popularity. It had hoped the Prime Minister wouldn't join him in the struggle-street zone so quickly. That Rudd has is a testament to Abbott's ability to point out his flaws, cutting through with voters who had already started to question the Prime Minister's ability to deliver on his promises.

Simply put, Rudd is on the verge of becoming a drag on the Labor vote and with that his authority is diminishing.

The government should win the next election, but the margin of victory won't be nearly as significant as it looked like being when Turnbull was leading a divided Coalition (assuming Abbott continues to hold his team together).

That means that if declining popularity doesn't catch up with Rudd before the next election, it certainly will in the election aftermath.

By then, however, the threat Rudd faces won't come from an opposition leader doing a good job of showing up the Prime Minister's weaknesses.

It will come from within Rudd's own party from Julia Gillard, a deputy with ambitions to become Australia's first female prime minister, and who is enjoying growing community support that should help make her ambitions a reality.