Party's progressive charade risks losing centre ground

Party risks

"IT'S not the lie that gets you, it's the cover-up."

Those immortal words, sometimes attributed to former US president Richard Nixon, will be haunting Julia Gillard as she continues her first visit to the US as Prime Minister.

Did Newspoll land the blow to Gillard's standing that it did simply because she broke her pre-election promise on a carbon tax, referred to by shock jocks the nation over as a lie? Or did the numbers tumble because she has doggedly tried to deny the backflip represents a broken promise? (She is putting a price on carbon, not taxing, as though there is a difference.) Or it may be that Australians are under cost-of-living strain, the details of any compensation attached to the new tax are up in the air, and climate change action isn't the issue it once was. All of the above probably contributed to the fall of Labor's and Gillard's standing.

Tony Abbott's net satisfaction rating remains low, now exactly the same as Gillard's. But the Opposition Leader is running a relentlessly negative campaign against the government, hurting his personal ratings but damaging Labor's primary vote in the process (now just 30per cent) and driving down its two-party vote (46 per cent).

The most startling figure in yesterday's Newspoll was Labor's primary vote. But the most significant was the Greens' of 15 per cent, up two points from the last Newspoll and more than three points from the last election. Gillard announces she will pursue a carbon tax and wears the political pain for doing so. Greens leader Bob Brown wins the applause of left-wing voters for forcing Gillard into a carbon tax backdown.

The reality Labor strategists should ponder is: the ALP can push a progressive agenda when it has the authority of majority government, but can it do so when it is a minority government in an alliance with the Greens? I suggest doing so from a position of weakness risks the centre ground and any credit from the Left goes to the alliance partner, not Labor. It's food for thought for a government bleeding votes on all sides.