No way back from these figures - just ask Howard

Lobbecke

"MERRY Christmas, Prime Minister." That was how one Labor MP sarcastically responded to this week's final Newspoll results for 2012, which found that Labor ended this year exactly where it ended last year.

The last Newspoll for December last year put Labor on a two-party-preferred vote of just 46 per cent, and so it was this week in the final poll for this year.

No improvement whatsoever, in a sure sign that Labor looks set to lose office next year despite false spin coming out of Julia Gillard's office, designed to ensure discipline and provide hope.

The promises of a poll-driven recovery following the February leadership showdown, or after the introduction of the carbon tax, or following the announcements of various reforms to disability services and education were summarily snuffed out by Newspoll this week.

It's not as though signs of a recovery were not apparent for Labor before this week. Consecutive Newspolls had delivered 50-50 and 49-51 two-party-preferred results for the government, seemingly putting it right back in the political contest.

But to end the year where it started is a serious psychological blow for the PM, even if the poll is rogue, and a sign that she may be about to enjoy - or is that endure? - her last summer in the top job.

Labor has plumbed some seriously low depths this year, according to the polls. In April, its primary vote dipped to just 27 per cent, according to Newspoll. In this context, Tuesday's 32 per cent doesn't look quite so bad. Equally, the 46 per cent two-party vote this week is much better than the yearly low for Labor of 41 per cent, also from April.

However, the reality is that alongside the Coalition's 46 per cent primary and 54 per cent two-party votes of the latest polls, Labor goes into the election year a mile behind.

Gillard is the underdog to win next year's election, despite personal polling numbers showing that Tony Abbott is one of the least-liked opposition leaders in our national history.

Labor strategists won't mind being able to assume permanent underdog status in an election year. But they need their MPs - and the media and voting public - to believe a comeback is on the cards. Hope matters. This is why the new spin being put out this week by the Prime Minister's office compares the way Labor is ending this year to how John Howard ended pre-election years on numerous occasions, only to come from behind and win.

It's a nice little argument, if only it were true. Newspoll numbers from the final round of polling ahead of Howard's re-election years consistently showed that the former prime minister always went into the summer recess ahead of an election in a competitive position.

The only time he did not was at the end of 2006, the year before he was resoundingly defeated by Kevin Rudd.

Facts and spin don't always mix that well together.

Howard faced re-election four times as prime minister: 1998, 2001, 2004 and 2007. Compare his Coalition governments' standing in the polls on each of these occasions to Labor's twin figures of 32 per cent primary and 46 per cent two-party support in Newspoll this week.

In the final Newspoll for December 1997, the Coalition and the Labor Party were equal on a primary vote of 41 per cent apiece. The Democrats, Greens and Pauline Hanson's One Nation shared the remaining votes. Howard won the election the following year with a primary vote of 39.5 per cent.

In December 2000 the Coalition's primary vote was 42 per cent, two points short of where Labor was at the time and just 1.1 per cent short of the result Howard achieved for the Coalition at the 2001 election.

In other words, Howard was right in the electoral hunt according to the final Newspolls the year before both elections, in sharp contrast to where Labor finds itself now.

In 1997 and 2000, the two-party results for the main parties were not calculated by Newspoll, so we don't have figures to go off for those elections. But we do for 2003. In the two Newspolls conducted in December 2003, the year before Mark Latham's attempt to become PM, the Coalition led Labor on both occasions by 51 per cent to 49 per cent, according to the two-party figures.

And, unsurprisingly, on both occasions the Coalition's primary vote was also strong, at 45 per cent and 44 per cent, six and three percentage points ahead of Labor's primary support respectively.

So when the Prime Minister's office attempts to spin journalists into believing Gillard has ended the polling year in no worse a position than Howard regularly did, they deserve to be called for their twisting of history.

Spin from Gillard's camp before summer is politically necessary because it is a long recess during which time MPs have a chance to think for themselves, free of the strictures of parliament. They can communicate in depth with their electorates, unimpinged by travel to Canberra. Spending time with family and friends can help MPs get a sense of where the political temperature may be.

The last thing that a PM who faced a leadership showdown in early 2012 needs during the summer break is nervous marginal-seat MPs thinking that under her leadership the likelihood is that next year will emulate this year, thus seeing Labor charting a certain course towards defeat.

MPs about to lose their jobs tend to scramble to try to find ways to save themselves. Spin matters because if MPs believe a comeback is on the cards they will conclude that hard work on their part might see them hold on. But if defeat appears certain, then fixing the polling can become a matter of changing the leader.

There was one occasion when Howard ended the polling year before an election as badly as Gillard has ended this year: in December 2006, ahead of Rudd's election as PM. On that occasion, the Coalition's primary vote had dipped into the 30s, at 39 per cent (five points higher than Labor's present primary vote). And the two-party vote for Howard's Coalition was down, at 45 per cent, one point lower than where Labor finds itself now.

It may not fit the script for the purposes of the PM's office spin, but if historical comparisons are to be made, comparing the way the Coalition ended 2006 to the way Labor is ending this year fits best. Poor polling to end a year before a summer recess makes it difficult for a prime minister to use the recess to try to build momentum. That was Howard's experience.

Bearing in mind that this week's result for Gillard mirrored the final poll Howard achieved to end 2006, Rudd from opposition went on to pick up 23 seats for Labor and form government the following year. If the Liberal and National parties win just three seats more than they did at the last election, Tony Abbott will become our next prime minister.

Peter van Onselen is a professor at the University of Western Australia.