No honeymoon for Morrison – just a battle on so many fronts

Prime Minister Scott Morrison. Picture: Zak Simmonds

In his opening days as Prime Minister, Scott Morrison projects a ­decisive break from Malcolm Turnbull in style, tactics and messaging while taking his time to deliberate on what policy departures he makes with his new cabinet.

Morrison has told his ministry to ensure the public, not the Liberal Party, is the immediate focus. He knows his first task is to steady the ship and calm the waters. But if this fails and recrimination cannot be contained, then Morrison’s prospects will be destroyed. It is by no means apparent he can tolerate the transaction costs of the conservative bid to destroy Turnbull and seize the leadership.

The single biggest message from Morrison is that he will fight Labor as an instinctive political animal, projecting as an in-touch community-based leader, down to earth, listening to public concerns, devoid of elitism, wealth or pretension, and ready to fight Bill Shorten’s populism with his own brand.

With a short run to the next election, Morrison will be governed by politics, not glorious policy reforms. He is anxious to present as a practical leader, ­obsessed neither by culture wars nor conservative ideology. He looks and talks like a man of the people, says lived outcomes not political philosophy is what matters and is hostage neither to big business nor trade unions.

Given the government’s chaos over the leadership, it is unlikely Morrison will enjoy any honeymoon. Polls can be expected to remain bad and he will need to earn any electoral recovery on merit. But Morrison cannot control every corner of an embittered party, and if next week — his first week as PM in parliament — is dominated by internal divisions, leaks or claims about Liberal bullying of women, that will suggest a party with a death wish.

While saying the public is entitled to feel “pretty gutted and pretty disappointed” by the events that made him Prime Minister, Morrison must establish his legitimacy in office while seeking to consign to history the Liberal regicide that surprised and dismayed much of the country.

An early priority is to stabilise parliament. That pivots on the Wentworth by-election, where Morrison assumes the Liberals will suffer a huge setback in losing Turnbull’s personal vote. The Liberals should win, but defeat would be lethal and would cast a permanent shadow across Morrison’s leadership, with the risk of de­stabilising the crossbenches.

Morrison is an orthodox Liberal, a former director of the NSW Liberal Party, with a better feel for the party than either Turnbull or Tony Abbott. His outlook is far closer to that of John Howard than was Turnbull’s.

He is a social conservative, sees the Liberals as a broad church of the liberal and conservative traditions, knows the party must fight on industrial relations, seeks to enshrine the economy and jobs as the frontline issue, made his reputation by stopping the boats, as the son of a policeman has law and order in his DNA, presents as a small business champion, and backs lower taxation but as treasurer put a premium on service delivery in health and education.

Significantly, Morrison will avoid fighting the symbolic wars demanded by conservative ideologues. He won’t succumb to the demands he withdraw from the Paris climate change agreement — an act meaningless in terms of cutting power prices before the next election, and pure electoral poison for the government.

“I won’t be doing Bill Shorten any favours,” Morrison said of such demands.

Nor will he abandon the 26 per cent emissions reduction target, government policy for four years under three Liberal PMs. Such demands by the conservative ideologues would repair the base vote at the cost of sacrificing the overall vote. Polls say the public expects Australia to participate in global action on emissions reduction.

Power price cuts are Morrison’s overriding priority and brought on the core structural change in his ministry. Splitting the portfolios of energy and environment is a turning point. This is Morrison’s admission their policy integration under Turnbull had failed in political terms, the proof being the forced abandonment of the national energy guarantee.

This response typifies Morrison: he sees a political failure and acts on it.

Energy Minister Angus Taylor is not interested in climate change scepticism but only in getting prices down via government intervention, fresh powers for the Australian Competition & Consumer Commission and by taking a “big stick” to the energy companies. And that big stick was Morrison’s injection into Turnbull’s final position. Now, as PM, he says the energy companies are as bad as the banks. But he has no plans to go socialist and fund a government-owned coal plant.

Understand that this entire new direction is driven by politics reinforced by the need for a short-term election fix. The defect is ­obvious: the absence of an integrated policy framework to underpin fresh investment or emissions reduction.

Morrison intends to elevate industrial relations after the Turnbull government’s extraordinary retreat on this front. The portfolio is returned to cabinet under Kelly O’Dwyer.

Don’t expect any revival of market-based labour reforms but, instead, an effort to expose the Opposition Leader’s single greatest vulnerability: his dependence on the CFMEU, an organisation practised in intimidation and violence yet vital in buttressing his leadership and party funding.

The story here is not that Shorten cannot be damaged, it is the charmed life he has enjoyed. So far, Morrison has been strong on words but is yet to spell out the line of policy attack. That’s understandable. But there is a rich field unfolding as ACTU secretary Sally McManus advances a long agenda of radical demands and Shorten promises greater statutory power for unions, more bargaining powers and the abolition of the “cop on the beat” in the building industry.

In short, the CFMEU and its tactics stand to be rewarded. Every sign is that Morrison recognises this is a non-negotiable issue for the Liberals. Any surrender on this front would be a denial of Liberal identity.

On tax, Morrison will use the defeat of the big business corporate tax cut package to reinforce his commitment to small and medium-sized business. Aware that Labor is pledged to repeal the smaller business tax cut from 27.5 per cent to 25 per cent, he wants to wedge Labor even more on this front.

On immigration, Morrison seems equivocal. He dislikes the public debate about numbers, knows the permanent program is no longer an accurate guide given short-term movements, recog­nises the importance of students and tourists, wants to address the congestion issue, stresses his commitment to an inclusive Australia and shows no sign of buying the idea of big cuts to the program.

He is impatient with the flawed approach to combating One ­Nation, an issue where both the Nationals and the Liberals have been inept. Morrison believes in an assertive challenge to One ­Nation on economic policy and avoiding any policy replication of Hansonism, because if the voters detect this game, they merely vote for the real thing.

Morrison believes in guarantees for religious freedom and intends to act on the Ruddock report, not immediately but down the track. For Morrison, a practising Christian, this penetrates to core community values. Yet this will become a flashpoint. Anti-Christian prejudice runs deep, particularly in the media, and this project will become a test of Morrison’s judgment and how Australia manages the rising tide of progressive hostility towards religion.

For Morrison, holding his ship together is a fraught task. With Turnbull’s exit and Julie Bishop going to the backbench, this is a new-look government, with a new PM, Treasurer, Foreign Minister and Energy Minister. Morrison’s message to ministers is: you own the outcome.

Given he declined to put ­Abbott into the cabinet, the indigenous envoy role becomes vital. But will it work? The answer to that question is critical. If Morrison-Abbott relations fray, that becomes a serious event because Abbott still speaks for the party base and any blow-up would sanction the conservatives and their media backers to turn against Morrison, if they hadn’t already.