Newspoll: Bad figures point to Turnbull’s management failure

PM Malcolm Turnbull during Question Time in the House of Representatives last week. Picture: Kym Smith

A perfect storm is looming for Malcolm Turnbull. While there is little doubt now that he will best Tony Abbott’s record of 30 losing Newspolls within several weeks, he also faces the prospect of reaching that milestone with Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister.

The simple fact is, the Turnbull government is facing a crisis of political management.

It is proving incapable of dealing tactically with issues as they arise and there is little evidence of thorough strategic thought as to how to handle issues it knows are coming. This, rather than policy, has long been a Coalition weakness under Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership. But it is now becoming a profound and enduring failure.

Newspoll: PM pays big price for Joyce scandal

Turnbull clearly wasn’t responsible for Barnaby Joyce’s affair. What he is ultimately responsible for, however, is the political management of the crisis which some colleagues argue encouraged the persistent examination of its twisted entrails.

The Prime Minister, who supporters will say was dealt few ­options other than the one he eventually pursued, is now paying the ultimate personal price, while the government has been robbed of legitimacy in prosecuting a case against Shorten, let alone promoting its own agenda.

The government is presently incapable of carrying a message.

This is the secondary effect that will ultimately prove fatal for the government unless something dramatic and demonstrative is done to arrest it.

The latest Newspoll confirms that the government continues to meander toward defeat.

That it picked up a primary point reflects the continued internal trading of primary votes ­between One Nation and the ­Coalition. The same must be said of Labor and the Greens.

Even so, the structural fundamentals at a federal level remain largely unchanged. The Coalition’s six-point primary vote deficit on the last election result appears locked in.

This indicates there has been little change in national voting ­intentions with the government now back in the same bog it found itself in at the end of last year.

For Turnbull, the danger looms again that it deteriorates into an issue of leadership. He is now two Newspolls away from being hoist on his own petard.

Some may argue that the 30th Newspoll that he set as the benchmark metric for failed leadership is now irrelevant as he has already outstripped Tony Abbott’s longevity for presiding over an unpopular government.

It has been 611 days since Turnbull returned a positive two-party-preferred vote for the Coalition.

Abbott on the other hand spent 530 days in negative territory ­before he was rolled.

But these numbers are likely to be of less concern for Turnbull than the collapse in his personal ratings since the beginning of February. He is now only two points clear of Shorten as preferred prime ­minister, having enjoyed a 14-point lead barely a month ago. The statistical margin of error suggests the two leaders are now virtually neck and neck.

The contest has been this ­narrow only once before during the three years of Mr Turnbull’s leadership. That was back in ­November when the Coalition was in the midst of arguably its worst period in government since the election.

There are several explanations for this. Either the government’s attempts to bend the politics to a question of character for Shorten are failing, or Shorten’s unpopularity is a feature already factored in. After all, Shorten’s own numbers have never been good to begin with.

Anyone in government who thinks the CFMEU and Adani-­related hits on Shorten are working, as valid as they may be, is drinking a special brew of Kool Aid. That Shorten has improved his stocks as preferred prime minister at a time when both leaders have suffered a fall in satisfaction levels should be a deeply troubling trend for Turnbull.