Net losses strip away PM's advantage

Rudd v Turnbull/Abbott

WHILE the Labor Party continues to enjoy a comfortable election-winning lead over the Coalition, Kevin Rudd is no longer the electoral asset to the government that he once was.

In fact, the trend lines suggest the net satisfaction rating for the Prime Minister and Tony Abbott may soon cross over, as dissatisfaction with Rudd has moved into the 40s.

Rudd's net satisfaction ratings has fallen from +26 when Abbott took over the Coalition leadership to just +10 now, including a drop of two points on the previous Newspoll a fortnight earlier. Meanwhile, Abbott has not only maintained his positive net satisfaction rating, but improved it from +2 to +7.

Considering Malcolm Turnbull's support was at -14 before he lost the leadership to Abbott, Liberals should be happy with the change they made.

Party strategists closely monitor the net satisfaction ratings of their leaders. Given the difficulties Rudd had last week answering questions on the ABC's Q&A, as well as the crisis enveloping his Environment Minister, Peter Garrett, it is not surprising the Prime Minister's popularity has taken a hit.

In an election year, it is hard to see Rudd's falling personal support rising again, as the opposition amplifies its attack on his track record of under-achievement on commitments made before the last election.

At least one senior Labor source told The Australian he was worried that if Rudd wasn't able to maintain his high personal popularity, discipline in the parliamentary ranks might fall away.

But the resilience of the government's two-party-preferred lead -- 53 per cent to 47 per cent in last weekend's Newspoll -- suggests concern in Labor ranks should be kept in context. A comfortable win at the next election remains highly likely.

The problem for Rudd is that if his personal support doesn't stay high, he won't have the authority in an election aftermath to stave off the ambitions of his rising deputy Julia Gillard.

Gillard has entered Newspoll this week with a surprisingly high support base among voters. Despite Rudd only being Prime Minister for two years, 32 per cent of voters would prefer Gillard as Labor leader over Rudd, and a further 11 per cent are uncommitted.

With Gillard performing well and Rudd's tetchiness increasingly out in the open, support for a change of Labor leader will only intensify in the election aftermath.