Matthew Guy deep in the wilds, without a weapon

Matthew Guy visits Findlay Engineering in Ballarat. Picture: Stuart McEvoy

When Scott Morrison stood on the timber deck high above the limestone stacks known as the Twelve Apostles yesterday, the Victorian Liberal leader was 160km to the northwest in Ballarat.

There, Matthew Guy had put on his tie and was doing the rounds of Findlay Engineering, somewhere in or near the marginal state Liberal seat of Ripon.

When Guy reads the latest Newspoll numbers, he will be wanting to turn back time and gently push the Prime Minister over the cliff by the Great Ocean Road.

Indeed, Guy and others might like to do the same to Peter Dutton and anyone else involved in the Turnbull leadership change.

The Newspoll provides clear evidence many voters do not like the necking of Malcolm Turnbull and the federal leadership virus has state implications. Morrison will understand better than most the concept of brand damage.

Given that Newspoll shows that 30 per cent of people are less likely to vote Liberal at the Nov­ember 24 Victorian election because of federal turmoil, Guy must now contemplate whether he can keep the show together in Victoria.

If these numbers are replicated on polling day, Labor will increase its small majority.

The question for Guy is how to manage the politics.

He was insistent yesterday he would campaign with Morrison during the election.

There will be thought given to this. In many ways, he might be better off completely blowing up the feds, but there are dangers in this, too.

Given that voters seem to be ­associating Lib-on-Lib Canberra violence with the party’s broader brand, running down the reputation even further may not seem a handsome option.

More broadly, Newspoll points to the momentum being right behind Labor’s Daniel Andrews, for his leadership and for the ­government.

Andrews has climbed four points on the preferred-premier rating.

Guy is down five.

It is Labor’s best poll since mid-2015 when it was still riding the wave of an election win.

Its primary vote is nearly three points higher this month than it was at the last election, and the ­Coalition is down three points.

There is a solid turnaround on the two-party-preferred vote as well.

Unless there is a dramatic ­development in the election campaign, Newspoll would suggest that Guy is deep in tiger country, without a gun.