Libs hope Shorten may yet get that sinking feeling

Regardless of whether the Ipsos poll was right or wrong, it served many purposes.

It re-energised the Liberals after months of self-flagellation. It gave them heart to keep fighting. It helped quell a revolt by the Nationals who were planning to take a big stick to the energy bills. It reminded Labor that boats can sink them, that complacency is as great an enemy as those who sit opposite, and to win it has to fight smarter and harder. For all of them it was a reminder of the importance of unity.

Politicians on all sides, whether they accepted the actual figures or not, knew in their gut that the gap had narrowed after the government lost a vote on the floor of the house but won a strategic victory on boats.

Labor’s anxiety to talk about something, anything, other than border protection was palpable. Attorney-General Christian Porter parodied their differences, after opposition immigration spokesman whatsisname, who hasn’t been allowed a gallop outside for six years, called the government’s decision to reopen Christmas Island hysterical and unhinged, only to have his leader say the next day he was “fine” with it, while deputy leader Tanya Plibersek made it obvious the day after she wasn’t fine with it at all.

Graham Perrett, who holds the Queensland seat of Moreton for Labor with a margin a smidgen over 4 per cent, is not alone in thinking that every day talking about boats is a bad day for Labor.

Further north, Keith Pitt, who holds Hinkler for the LNP with a margin double that of Perrett’s, reckoned, without hesitating, that the boat vote was the biggest mistake Bill Shorten had made in two terms. It sounds like a big call, but not really, particularly not when you consider that like comedy, in politics, timing is everything.

Towards the end of the last sitting week, Perrett, first elected in the “Ruddrush” of 2007, was looking forward to taking the temperature in his electorate. He was saying then that the mood in the lead-up to the resumption of parliament had been pretty good, not as good as 2007, but it had nothing of the feel of 2013 when the Coalition was elected.

Once a month, Perrett hosts a barbecue in a suburban park in his electorate. On Saturday, at the first one for this year at a park in Sunnybank, a suburb south of Brisbane, 70 people turned up.

What most surprised — and pleased — Perrett was that unsolicited, two people volunteered to help him campaign. What was not surprising was that four people — two couples — raised dividend imputation. One couple made clear they weren’t going to vote for him, while he was unsure where the other couple would land after their conversation.

Only one person raised border protection. It would be wrong to say Perrett ignored the poll released on Nine on Sunday night, or that he diminishes the importance of this issue and the damage it can do to Labor. But he wasn’t going to tie himself in knots over one poll.

“Over the last 16 years I have learned not to follow or worry about the polls too much in my marginal seat,” he says.

“If I did, I would either go mad or be filled with despair. Working hard before, during and after the election is my strategy.”

One of his southern colleagues, while conceding a slight tightening was possible and probably inevitable, was more direct about the 51-49 Ipsos result: “Complete bullshit.”

The reaction in Pitt’s electorate bore out the prediction from Labor hardheads that the further north you travel, the more the government’s border protection message resonates.

Pitt didn’t quite make it home at the weekend, but a deputy mayor friend of his in Childers reported from the local coffee shop that people were going feral, worrying about more boats and more drownings, angry that Shorten couldn’t see what he had done.

With unity and stability rating high in the private research, Shorten had a choice last week.

He could side with the government and risk an outbreak of dis­unity on his Left flank triggering a voter backlash, or he could cave in to the crossbenchers, placate the Left, trigger a voter backlash, then keep all fingers and toes crossed and hope the issue would die down by the election.

While Pitt thinks there has been movement back to the government, he’s also not convinced by Ipsos. He and others are waiting for a flock of polls, preferably Newspoll, to show a pick-up in support before they breathe out.

In any case, while border protection floats boats in the north, according to Pitt the issue trumping that is cost of living. “Every time people get their power bill it is a reminder someone is robbing them,” Pitt says. “We need to act.”

Pitt and other Nationals were furious the government had pulled its “big stick” energy legislation, which has lent itself to many uncouth jokes against government ministers from Labor frontbenchers such as Mark Dreyfus and Chris Bowen, including by pointedly holding up toothpicks.

Nationals vented at their party meeting on Monday. They had wanted the legislation, which ­includes introducing divestment rules for recalcitrant energy companies, voted on.

They were not worried if it was voted down, or amended by the Greens to include a ban on any government underwriting of coal.

If that were to happen, particularly with unions now agitating for Labor to be more proactive in support for the Adani coalmine, they believe it would win them votes, in the same way they think the vote on boats will.

Nationals fear their small-L liberal colleagues have developed a coal-phobia or are naturally squeamish about divestment laws.

They first blame their leader, Michael McCormack, for not standing up to them, and concede the poll snuffed out any thoughts of rebellion.

“He won’t be challenged, but may not be followed,” one dissident National warned, while others predicted that, win, lose or draw, McCormack would be deposed after the election, possibly by Barnaby Joyce, although that will depend on who is left standing.

The narrowing gave Coalition MPs renewed hope; however, that is a long way from being confident that victory will follow, or even that any gains will be sustained.

And there is always the niggling fear that last week could turn out to be as good as it gets.