Liberals in terminal decline leave their dead in charge

Governor General Sir Peter Cosgrove, PM Malcolm Turnbull, Julie Bishop and Scott Morrison join the new Turnbull Ministry for a group photo after being sworn in.

It’s D-Day in Canberra as that familiar cry echoes through the corridors of Parliament House: “Bring out your dead!” Malcolm Turnbull has cheated political death by making ministers out of the MPs who helped him oust Tony Abbott. But all the PM’s men haven’t been able to reverse the Liberal Coalition’s terminal decline in popularity. Today, Turnbull meets his maker: Newspoll No 30. He will survive, but his government is bleeding out in no-man’s land.

When Abbott finally succumbed to Newspoll at the 30th blow, he remarked on the folly of running politics by poll popularity. Policy and principle, not polls, were the mark of good government. Turnbull responded with a scorched-earth offensive. After winning the partyroom ballot for leadership of the Liberal Party, Turnbull held a press conference that sealed his fate, saying: “The one thing that is clear about our current situation is the trajectory. We have lost 30 Newspolls in a row. It is clear that the people have made up their mind about Mr ­Abbott’s leadership.”

Today we learned that the people have made up their mind about Turnbull’s leadership.

The Liberal left won the battle for prime ministership, but it’s losing the war for good government. Last year, I warned the Liberals were on a road to nowhere. Turnbull rejected ideology as a framework for governing. He attacked Labor for using it as a guiding principle for policy. From London, he mounted an extraordinary attack on conservatives by rejecting the conservative foundations of Liberal Party philosophy. He was above such petty things as ideology and philosophy. Instead, he was going to be a pragmatic prime minister.

It is easy to preach pragmatism, but very difficult to transform the idea into a workable policy framework. Turnbull’s hubris fell off with his L-plates. Like many lawyers, he excels at fault-finding, but his lack of policy nous shows. He has failed to create a coherent policy agenda to give the government clear direction and unity of purpose. His promise of consultative leadership now looks like an exercise in big government. His vow to restore economic leadership benefits from record high jobs growth. However, unprecedented national debt and big government spending threaten to overwhelm the positive jobs message.

The PM has created a bloated ministry and overseen a boost to political staffers’ salaries while the nation suffers wage stagnation, record high energy costs and looming rate rises. This newspaper’s economic correspondent, Adam Creighton, calculated that it costs taxpayers $45 million a year to fund senior political advisers for federal politicians. Turnbull ­appears to be a rather extravagant PM; Howard had 345 advisers in 2000 while the current government has 442. Turnbull’s 50 ministerial staff spend $5840 a day on travel expenses, which is 87 per cent higher than similar expenditure by Abbott’s staff.

One of the Liberal Party’s traditional strengths is reducing the size of government by slashing expenditure. But some of Turnbull’s closest allies defend a big spending agenda when it benefits them. Last year, Education Minister Simon Birmingham backed the process that delivered politicians a 2 per cent pay rise on top of the $199,040 base salary. At a time when wages are stagnating, Birmingham welcomed more taxpayer funding for politicians, saying their salaries were “well and truly in check”.

The government has crafted big spender policies in education and energy without an evidence base to justify it. The billion-dollar Gonski reforms were passed with the influence of the Greens, the party of big government and hard left ideology. There is sustained criticism about the Coalition’s energy policy given the cost of electricity to consumers and the inefficiency of renewable technology compared to coal. And there is a lack of policy coherence as infighting continues to derail unity of purpose within the government.

Despite clear evidence that it is spending beyond its means, the government has a positive economic message to sell in respect of employment. Turnbull has delivered on his promise of economic leadership in regard to jobs growth. Last year, the government delivered 403,000 jobs. However, the Abbott government delivered about 450,000. It begs the question of whether the leadership change was worth it.

Today’s Newspoll result is more than a performance metric. Turnbull made losing 30 consecutive Newspolls grounds for the dismissal of a Liberal Party leader. But whatever the state of factional wars in the Liberal Party, there is little desire in the government or the electorate for another mutiny on Parliament Hill. Turnbull commands the confidence of the party room and he has guided the government through some turbulent waters. He managed the same-sex marriage plebiscite with care. Although he has yet to uphold his commitment to protect religious freedom, he defended democracy and freedom of speech in very hostile and aggressive forums.

The Turnbull government secured the passage of industrial relations reforms that had been blocked by the Senate and triggered the double-dissolution election. While the ROC and ABCC bills were watered down, they are political credit that can be used during the next election campaign.

The government continues to master border security and immigration thanks the success of ­Abbott-era policies and Peter Dutton’s expert handling of relevant portfolios. There also are significant achievements for the government in welfare. The cashless welfare card program is yielding excellent results in trials. If subsequent trials prove successful, the model could be a game-changer for the government and challenge the welfarist approach to health.

While the Turnbull government has achieved some good results, the Liberal coalition remains divided. The revolving-door leadership that marked Australia’s dismal decade has proven fruitless for both major parties. It has damaged the public faith in government required to make democracies stable. As a free world nation in a world of totalitarian states, Australia is a political minority. Our freedom depends on politicians committed to liberal principles, not the cheap statecraft of Machiavelli’s minions.