Leader defies post-election trend with boost

THE remarkable upsurge in Tony Abbott's net satisfaction rating suggests we are in for a period of hand-to-hand political combat between the leaders.

It also breaks the tradition that, in the aftermath of an election, the victor enjoys a honeymoon and the vanquished starts an inevitable decline towards a future leadership challenge.

The Opposition Leader's net satisfaction rating - the number of voters who are satisfied with a leader's performance minus those who are dissatisfied - has gone from -8 to +10 in less than a month.

On the eve of the election, Abbott was a net drag on the Coalition's vote, even though, without him, it never would have been in the contest. Now he is an out-and-out positive for the opposition, perhaps the only thing that stands between discipline and chaos in the years ahead.

Abbott had a good campaign; in fact, he had an excellent one. Whatever anyone thinks about his policies, his failed costings or deficiencies in the party organisation's ability to do better in states such as NSW, Abbott did what he needed to do to damage Labor and Julia Gillard, in particular.

He ran a relentlessly negative campaign and he personalised his attacks. It worked - almost.

But a strange thing has happened in the electoral aftermath. Although the polls suggest most voters wanted Labor to form government, they haven't lifted the Prime Minister's satisfaction rating, even though her net satisfaction rating has shifted from +1 to +8. That change occurred because the number of voters uncommitted about her performance increased from 13 to 20 per cent. Abbott's uncommitted column increased, but in conjunction with a large increase among voters satisfied with his performance.

This suggests it is Abbott and not Gillard getting more of the benefit of the doubt. For a leader who always struggled with his personal ratings, this is just the start Abbott needs as the grind of opposition begins once again.

However, the Liberal leader has to be careful. To maintain his ratings may involve ditching the relentless negativity. Remember, when he was at his most negative during the campaign, his personal ratings weren't high.

Abbott may need to build a more positive alternative to woo voters into backing the Coalition, rather than simply frightening them away from Labor. This will especially be the case if Gillard lifts Labor's performance.