Labor's turkeys home to roost

THE first electoral test of the year will be on March 26 when NSW voters go to the polls.

Kristina Keneally must know it is therefore only a matter of months before she is out of the state's top job, which is why some inside the Labor Party are canvassing the possibility of her switching to federal politics, moving into the seat of Kingsford Smith if Peter Garrett chooses to call it quits.

Such talk has been far less robust since her botched attempt to sell the state's electricity industry.

Julia Gillard won't welcome any by-elections this year, even in a seat as safe as Kingsford Smith. But it wouldn't be the first time an unsuccessful Labor premier moved into federal politics after a defeat at the polls.

Carmen Lawrence did it from Western Australia after losing a state election in 1993. The following year she was elected to the federal parliament at a by-election and became a minister in the Keating government. Like Keneally, Lawrence was young when losing the premiership (we might as well refer to Keneally's tenure in the past tense), in her mid-40s.

However, before attention is paid to the fallout from Labor's much-anticipated March defeat, the campaign will have to run its course, and the size of the loss is yet to be known.

The NSW government has cycled through a number of ministers during this four-year term, variously removed for incompetence or misconduct. And since Bob Carr's departure premiers have been lucky to last a year.

Labor goes into the coming election with most of its big names retiring or already gone. Joe Tripodi and Frank Sartor are two of the biggest names toquit. John Della Bosca announced his departure earlier last year. At one level renewal is important: to perhaps reduce voter anger towards old NSW Labor before it goes to the ballot box.

If they wanted to punish the line-up that dominated NSW politics for the past decade and a half they won't get their chance: they will have to be satisfied with ending new careers before they even begin by voting against fresh Labor candidates in seats normally regarded as safe.

At a Christmas drinks function a Liberal state MP from NSW was complaining to me that the key seats roster is getting longer, now inclusive of all seats with Labor margins of up to 17 per cent.

That's how hopeful the Liberals are at the coming election, and it is a sign of how small Labor's post-parliamentary team might end up being.

But the fact that Labor has been in office in NSW for 16 long years is not the only reason that it is lurching towards a sizeable defeat. Policy decision making (or sometimes a lack thereof) is at the heart of voter disillusionment with the NSW Labor government.

Just before Christmas that feeling was once again fuelled when Treasurer Eric Roozendaal authorised the sale of the state's electricity services. It was a fire sale, reaping just over $5 billion (but really only $3bn because one of the conditions of the sale was that the government purchase a $2bn coal mine).

Carr tried to sell electricity assets in 1997 for approximately $30bn but was overruled by Labor's state conference and Morris Iemma tried again in 2007 for half that amount but was also overruled (being toppled as leader as a consequence).

The cheap price tag of today is doubly galling for voters, especially considering the opposition is opposed to the sale and would have retained the assets at least until they were able to get a better price once elected.

Keneally is for all intents and purposes presiding over a caretaker administration.

She had no business allowing such a controversial sale right before an election, certainly not considering that to make it happen the government had to replace nine directors from the boards of the public electricity companies because they refused to approve the plan, believing it was a dud sale.

Throw in the fact that the man most likely to take over the reins for Labor after the election is John Roberston, the former union official who scuttled Iemma's bid to sell electricity assets at a more reasonable price three years ago - and the political damage this issue has caused Labor may not end on polling day.

But electricity privatisation isn't the only controversial policy area in NSW. The release of land for development has been slow. The alternative policy of creating inner-city density has upset local communities who feel crowded out by too many home units in their suburbs. And the state's infrastructure has been allowed to run down, even with a late injection of funds courtesy of the federal government's Infrastructure Australia fund.

What we will find out when Barry O'Farrell becomes premier after the March election is whether the problems of Sydney are simply big-city issues that are unavoidable when urban sprawl reaches the level it has in Australia's largest city, or whether the problems can be addressed by good management and a rationalisation of government services.

If the former is the case the Labor Party just might recover quickly to become politically competitive in Labor's favourite state.

If, however, the latter is the case and O'Farrell repairs Labor's mess, it could be a long wait in the political wilderness for the NSW Labor machine and that would also have federal implications.

Julia Gillard will be hoping that with NSW Labor out of power she will be able to rebuild Labor's brand in the commonwealth's largest state.

But she might want to think again about that prospect, because with voter angst so strongly opposed to the NSW Labor brand, the federal party will need to be careful, given the number of names in its ranks who built careers in NSW Labor.