If Newspoll numbers hold, ALP will win

IF yesterday's Newspoll results were translated into the federal election outcome it would make for a different-looking parliament when it resumed sittings after the election.

The key factor is the surge in the Greens' primary vote, presumably on the back of discontent with both major parties. A Greens primary vote of 16 per cent would be a record election result for the emerging minor party.

The most important impact the Greens' strong primary showing would have on an election outcome, is how its preferences might be distributed.

Newspoll calculates preferences according to what occurred at the last federal election, but that isn't always accurate.

At the 2007 election, Greens preferences for the major parties were split 80 per cent to Labor and 20 per cent to the Liberals.

Many Greens protest voters might be loath to vote for Tony Abbott, but they are hardly enamoured with Kevin Rudd's performance of late - junking the emissions trading scheme, spending up big on partisan taxpayer-funded advertising and breaking a few election commitments along the way. And with no other viable minor party for conservative protest voters unhappy with the new mining tax but unimpressed with the opposition, it could be that the Greens vote isn't as left-leaning at this election as it usually is. This possibility is supported by recent Morgan polling that did include questions on preferences.

It suggested more Greens preferences were heading to the Coalition in current polling than was the case at the last election.

If that is true, Newspoll's two-party vote for Labor of 51 per cent would be inflated.

That would make sense because the Newspoll primary vote of 35 per cent for Labor hasn't historically been enough to deliver it to government (neither is the Coalition's 41 per cent).

But if we were to use the 51 to 49 per cent numbers Newspoll registered, and if they were reflected in a uniform fashion at the next election, Labor would be returned with a reduced majority, because it won the last election with a more convincing 53 per cent of the TPP vote.

Electoral redistributions in Western Australia, Queensland and NSW each favoured the government, but not by enough for Labor to retain even its 2007 seat allocation with just 51 per cent of the TPP vote.

The advantage of incumbency - the ability to throw more resources at key seats and embark on a strategy of holding on - means that if Labor secures 51 per cent of the TPP vote or near enough, it should win.

As the South Australian government of Mike Rann showed, incumbents can sometimes win with under 50 per cent of the TPP vote. Howard also did this at his first re-election in 1998.

But the high Greens vote from Newspoll could mean trouble for some senior Labor figures.

The Greens fancy their chances against Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner, for example, in his inner-city electorate of Melbourne.

A 16 per cent Greens vote nationally would be much higher in Tanner's backyard, and with Liberal preferences flowing the Greens way, it could be enough to dislodge him.

So if yesterday's Newspoll result occurred at the election it would most likely mean a re-elected government, but one that was bruised and lacking the mandate required to push the balance-of-power-holding Greens around in the Senate.