Gillard's backflip has her on back foot

THERE is plenty of hopeful talk in Labor circles that Julia Gillard's carbon tax backflip should be compared with John Howard's backflip on the Goods and Services Tax.

However, the more accurate comparison is with the Coalition's Work Choices, imposed after the 2004 election without a mandate.

Howard said he would "never, ever" introduce a GST in 1995. To overcome that statement, he campaigned for a GST at the 1998 election, implementing it only after (narrowly) winning. When the Coalition gained control of the Senate after the 2004 election, Howard introduced Work Choices without a mandate, just as Gillard is attempting to do now with the carbon tax.

Gillard told us during last year's election "there will be no carbon tax under the government I lead". She now claims Labor has a mandate for action on climate change because her party has campaigned for an ETS since 2007. But not for a carbon tax, which she specifically ruled out.

It's a similar situation to Howard's claim he had a mandate for Work Choices because he had campaigned against unfair dismissal laws since the 1990s, and more generally for IR reform for 30 years. But Work Choices went much further than removing Paul Keating's unfair dismissal laws.

Gillard and Climate Change Minister Greg Combet are refusing to detail what the compensation package for the carbon tax will look like, and Tony Abbott has his scare campaign well rehearsed.

When Howard sought to implement Work Choices, it took the Coalition too long to get the details sorted and pass the legislation. Meanwhile, the unions organised a powerful scare campaign. When he announced he would introduce the GST, it was different. The Coalition was ready to go with details about the personal income tax cuts and wholesale sales tax cuts that would accompany the GST.

Gillard is now arguing her case for a carbon tax against a master of negative politics, supported by an army of outraged right-wing commentators. When Howard fought for the GST, he was against a sedate Kim Beazley; by the time he was fighting for his political life after Work Choices was implemented, Labor had refreshed under Kevin Rudd and the unions were up in arms.

Howard won the case for a GST, but lost the argument for Work Choices. Time will tell whether the carbon tax emulates Work Choices to the bitter end.