Gillard shapes up as Libs' next target

KEVIN Rudd's net satisfaction rating - the number of voters who are satisfied with his performance minus those who are dissatisfied - has plummeted from +9 to -12 in less than a month. It has steadily fallen from historic highs two years ago.

With two consecutive large net dissatisfaction ratings in a row now on record, the public's disdain for the PrimeMinister does not look like being a passing opinion.

Brand Rudd is dead, and there is likely no coming back from it.

That doesn't mean Labor won't win the next election; there is still the party's brand to consider (on the two-party vote it is still level-pegging with the Coalition).

And it doesn't mean Rudd won't still be the leader by the time the election is called. Dumping a first-term PM would take panic to a new level.

But it is hard to see what Rudd can do to regain his credibility. He can't spend up big without being accused of fiscal recklessness. He can't reverse any more decisions without doing himself significant harm for flip-flopping. And he can't convince people he is passionate about issues now that he has walked away from the great moral challenge.

If Rudd is to go on and win the election, it is likely to happen because the opposition falters, the public baulks at electing Tony Abbott (his net satisfaction rating is also negative at -3) or the Aussie principle of a fair go kicks in and voters give Rudd and, more particularly, Labor one more term.

The last option is why deputy Liberal leader Julie Bishop was dead right when she told her partyroom it should start taking the gloss off Julia Gillard. If voters re-elect Rudd, one of the reasons for doing so is the hope the popular Gillard becomes PM next term.

Rudd revealed himself to be a callow politician who stands for very little when he dumped his commitment to an emissions trading scheme some weeks ago. He thought he could do it for political reasons when, in fact, politics dictated that he simply couldn't.

You just can't describe something as the greatest moral challenge of our generation and chastise others for political cowardice for not wanting to take action about it and then yourself retreat from the form of action you had prescribed.

No wonder Rudd's numbers have gone through the floor.