Forget federal chaos, Gladys will lose seats regardless

Regardless of the federal situation, Gladys Berejiklian’s government is on the edge because of the ­botched light rail project, the knockdown and rebuild of stadiums, and poor messaging.

Research shows that all over the state, the blowout in the ­delayed light rail project is hitting home for the NSW government — and that Berejiklian, who was transport minister at the time it was announced, is being personally blamed for it. The research shows the light rail debacle — ­Berejiklian announced it would cost $1.6 billion; it has blown out to $2.1 billion; and now contractor ­Acciona is suing for a further $1.2bn — has raised questions of competence about the NSW government’s infrastructure program.

Not helping with that is the fact the project is a year late and other major projects will not be up and running before the election in March.

Most pundits on both sides see the loss of six seats needed for a minority government to come into play as being almost a certainty.

A weekend Daily Telegraph Galaxy poll showed a 6.3 per cent swing against the government, from the Mike Baird 2015 election two-party-preferred figure of 54.3 per cent for the Coalition to 48 per cent.

There are seven Coalition seats held by a margin of less than 6.3 per cent — East Hills (0.4 per cent), Upper Hunter (2.2), Monaro (2.5), Lismore (2.9), Coogee (2.9), Tweed (3.2) and Penrith (6.2).

Three more seats — Goulburn, Oatley and Holsworthy — are below the 7 per cent swing mark.

Others in play include Heathcote and Seven Hills. Berejiklian and Labor leader Michael Daley now appear to be vying over three or four seats that will determine whether Berejiklian is best placed to form a minority government after the March 23 election or Daley is.

There is real concern about the government’s fortunes in the bush after two massive by-election ­losses — in Orange and Wagga Wagga to a Shooters MP and independent — in the past two years.

Among young people, the vote against the Coalition is up ­because of concerns over house prices and lockout laws.

Senior Liberal staffers have boasted that the government could lose as few as three seats ­according to seat-by-seat polling carried out by the party and ­industry groups, but this occurred while Luke Foley was Labor leader, and seat polling is notoriously un­reliable.

Labor sources say while winning six seats to force Berejiklian into minority government is achievable, the next barrier is more difficult, with some swing to Labor occurring in its own strongholds or safe Nationals seats.

At the weekend, Berejiklian launched an advertising campaign with the slogan “Let’s Get it Done”.

One minister rather unkindly likened the slogan to “lie back and think of the empire”.