Population begets congestion

One element of population policy driving the work of Alan Tudge as he outlines his vision as Minister for Cities, Urban Infrastructure and Population is planning. In a speech today the minister also will highlight how forecasting can be a crucial weakness, undermining even the best-laid plans. Mr Tudge points to data that shows population growth during the past decade has doubled forecasts. Surely, then, a crucial element of planning must be to get population predictions right or to align immigration settings to match planned population goals.

Our population hit 25 million in August, more than 30 years earlier than had been predicted only 20 years ago. It took Australia 23 years to grow from 15 million to 20 million but only 14 years to add the next five million people. Net overseas migration has accounted for most of the increase. Migrants make up 64 per cent of the growth in Melbourne and 84 per cent in Sydney. As Mr Tudge points out, it is those two capitals and southeast Queensland that are shouldering the bulk of the population load and this rapid escalation has created an infrastructure deficit. He blames some of this on poor decision-making by Bob Carr’s former Labor government in NSW and the Daniel Andrews Labor administration in Victoria, but in the end what matters is the future.

Huge transport projects under way in Sydney and Melbourne have added to congestion during construction but will ease it on completion. However, much more is required, including fast rail to link nearby centres. Without revealing any new specifics, Mr Tudge also promises to do better in sharing the immigration task around the nation, matching skill shortages with demand in the regions and smaller states such as South Australia, where the need is for more growth rather than less.

Commuting times have doubled in some parts of the big cities in the past decade, so this is a barbecue stopper. Politicians will dismiss the population debate at their peril. Mr Tudge has outlined a sensible approach but voters will want to see results and many are demanding cuts to immigration rates until infrastructure catches up.