National interest at stake in Wentworth by-election

The Italy of the South Pacific, Australia has its sixth prime minister in a little more than a decade. We coast along with enormous debt and the risk of economic shocks ahead. Our region is the theatre for one of the great strategic shifts in history with the rise of China, which is bent on asserting its power at the expense of the US. And with Donald Trump in the White House, there is uncertainty about the postwar system of alliances on which we have depended for our security.

It may seem bathetic to segue to a by-election in a pampered 38sq km of Sydney’s east, the blue-ribbon electoral domain of Malcolm Turnbull for 14 years. But there is a lot at stake when the electors of Wentworth cast their votes tomorrow. The danger is that the Liberals lose the seat to an independent, tipping us into minority government and renewed instability. In such a state, the national interest goes missing amid infighting and the struggle for political survival. Hence the involvement of John Howard — a living reminder of our last extended period of confidence and competence in Canberra — in the campaign.

But the Morrison government faces opportunities as well as risks. It cannot afford to squander the chance to articulate a coherent mission and forge ahead under the first prime minister since 2007 who comes to the job without blood on his hands after a coup against a leader of his own party. He has shown signs of the political skills lacking in Tony Abbott and Mr Turnbull, and there has been hope of the Coalition seizing the initiative. What we need more of is a sharp focus on the national interest: imposing restraint on spending; getting the budget back in surplus and paying down debt; and unleashing entrepreneurial spirits by seeing through company tax cuts and paring back red tape, thereby increasing investment, jobs and wages.

Instead, on the eve of the by-election, the government has had a week of distractions. Scott Morrison executed a swift about-face on a new agricultural visa to address labour shortages on the land. He did so because the Deputy Prime Minister, Michael McCormack, an advocate of the visa, is vulnerable to Barnaby Joyce, who after the world of pain he brought on himself and others has said he happily would be drafted into the leadership of the Nationals. This week also saw the fiasco of Coalition senators voting for Pauline Hanson’s “OK to be white” stunt.

Meanwhile, with an eye to Wentworth, the Prime Minister has guaranteed NSW more GST revenue, floated a possible New Zealand solution to the asylum-seeker problem and declared himself ready to consider a pro-Israel change to two elements of foreign policy. The last measures happen to be sensible but their timing has underscored Mr Morrison’s intense political insecurity. Also making things more difficult in Wentworth, a distinctly pink-tinged electorate, was a misleading media report last week that the government was mulling a change in anti-discrimination law to allow religious schools to sack gay teachers and bar gay pupils.

Opinion polls suggest the Liberals are in serious trouble in Wentworth. Mr Turnbull has to take his share of responsibility. He held the electorate with a 17 per cent margin. This was proof of his popularity, without which Liberal supremacy in the seat could not be taken for granted. Unlike Julie Bishop, whose own political ambitions were frustrated, Mr Turnbull chose to resign and force a by-election on a government with a one-seat majority.

Mr Howard, who says there is “a real risk” of defeat in Wentworth, has joined Ms Bishop and Mr Abbott in campaigning for Liberal candidate Dave Sharma. From his perch in New York, Mr Turnbull did initially endorse the former ambassador to Israel. But he resisted urgings from Liberals this week to publicly support Mr Sharma, despite the peril of a significant protest vote. His reason supposedly is that to do so would have been a distraction reminding voters of his defenestration as prime minister. This seems implausible. Yesterday Mr Turnbull’s Twitter account briefly “liked” a tweet in favour of the independent challenger for his old seat, Kerryn Phelps.

What would a vote for her mean? Dr Phelps is a political shapeshifter, having occupied a series of contradictory positions through the years. On the question of preferences, the only constant seems her change of stance. Her election would expose a minority government to her and other independents’ unpredictable dictates. A forced early election would be one risk, with the prospect of Bill Shorten as prime minister one step closer.

The government has to put distraction behind it and focus the minds of voters on the hazards of Labor rule; on the danger of a prime minister who keeps the law-breaking CFMEU as a protected part of his power base; on a return to the bad old days of collective bargaining and strike action to coerce whole industries to grant pay rises above productivity gains; on higher taxes and more regulation stifling economic enterprise. Choose wisely, Wentworth.