Barnaby goes, along with stability and competence

It is a little more than four years ago that Tony Abbott claimed an election victory and heralded a new Coalition government. “A government of no surprises and no excuses,” he pledged.

Given the turmoil of the past week, Mr Abbott’s words seem to belong to another age. He was torn down as prime minister a little more than two years ago and Malcolm Turnbull held on to government by the barest margin of one seat last year. Now, even that absolute but slender majority has disappeared as former deputy prime minister Barnaby Joyce has been ruled ineligible for parliament. He will now recontest his seat in a December 2 by-election. The House of Representatives sits for only one week before then, but that final week of next month will be quite a spectacle. With 75 seats in a chamber reduced to 149 members, and the expected support of three unaligned MPs, the government should survive.

But just what motions Labor may put, what tactics may be attempted and what mischief may unfold is an open question. We can predict The Weekend Australian’s constant ambition for confident, reform-oriented and purposeful government will not easily be met over what is left of the year.

The High Court, sitting as the court of disputed returns, decided that in the “ordinary and natural meaning” of the Constitution Mr Joyce and former senators Fiona Nash, Malcolm Roberts, Larissa Waters and Scott Ludlam were citizens of other nations at the time they nominated for the election last year and were therefore ineligible. The two Greens politicians had already resigned from the Senate; Ms Nash will be replaced by the next person on the Coalition ticket, Hollie Hughes; and Mr Roberts will be replaced by his One Nation underling Fraser Anning, while he will now nominate for the state seat of Ipswich in the Queensland election, which could be called tomorrow.

As if to add to the confusion, the senators whose eligibility was confirmed went in opposite directions — Matt Canavan was immediately sworn back into his cabinet role as Resources Minister while Nick Xenophon will resign from the Senate anyway and hand his seat over to another Nick Xenophon Team member so he can contest the South Australian election in March. Rounding out the movements, the Prime Minister has been sworn in to replace Mr Joyce as Agriculture and Water Resources Minister, while Ms Nash’s portfolios are split between her colleagues Darren Chester and Mitch Fifield. What a shambles.

Mr Turnbull was due to be on his way to Israel for World War I commemorations but the turmoil is delaying his plans. Ordinarily, Mr Joyce would act as prime minister. The Nationals have lost their parliamentary leader and deputy. The government has lost two cabinet ministers. Mr Turnbull is humiliated after defiantly declaring in August: “The deputy prime minister is qualified to sit in this house and the High Court will so hold.” For now, the Coalition has lost any sense of stability and competence.

With unanimous judgments the High Court has acted clearly and decisively. Mr Turnbull will refer the matter to a parliamentary committee on electoral matters to consider whether reform is required. The intent of clause 44(i) is fine, demanding that federal parliamentarians are citizens of this nation alone. The easiest way to deal with the provision and ensure such chaos does not recur is to ensure candidates thoroughly check their citizenship status. It is worth noting no major party politician has been caught out — the five politicians ruled ineligible are from the Nationals, Greens and One Nation — suggesting that the major party vetting processes are sufficiently rigorous.

Mr Turnbull’s dilemma is more immediate. He must restore calm and ensure the government can get on with its work. He must focus on the issues that matter to voters, such as energy supply and affordability, and those that can stimulate economic growth, such as his business tax agenda. Little is going right for him. The strong response to the gay marriage survey is one plus, as is the generally positive response to his energy package. But he must find a way to control the political debate and command the economic narrative as he promised when he took over. Public patience is wearing thin and the parliament is perilous.