Newspoll nay-sayers come out for Turnbull’s 30th loss but survey stands test
Newspoll sucks, Christopher Pyne says. ABC RN Breakfast, yesterday:
… if we listened to the polls Nick Xenophon would be premier today, because Newspoll said he would be …
Newspoll said Nick Xenophon would be South Australia’s premier? Really? The Australian, March 17:
Xenophon’s support among voters has continued to dive ahead of tomorrow’s wildly unpredictable South Australian election, with his personal standing lower than the leaders of the major parties … and his new party’s primary vote now below 20 per cent.
If Newspoll is so rubbish, why can Pyne rattle off figures from a decade ago? RN Breakfast, continued:
I remember when Mark Latham was leading John Howard 54-46, that was only four months out from the 2004 election and we won 53-47, there was a seven-point turnaround …
Because it’s been so darn accurate at every election and Pyne knows it? Newspoll chief David Briggs in The Australian, yesterday:
… at four of the past five federal elections the final Newspolls have been well within the margin of 1 per cent, with the result in 2016 the most accurate in Australian polling history.
But what about the preferences? Pyne on RN Breakfast, yesterday:
Except that the Newspoll … doesn’t ask people what their second preference is, it applies the preference flow from the last election, whereas a good poll asks people what their second preference is.
Where did Pyne get that line from? The Australian Financial Review editor-in-chief Michael Stutchbury on ABC’s Insiders, Sunday:
Barrie Cassidy: … the Fairfax Ipsos poll was a nice little spoiler … it turned up a rather interesting finding, too, based around preference flows?
Stutchbury: … if you do the preferences based on people’s stated preferences … you end up with basically a 50/50 result (on two-party preferred).
Turns out respondent-allocated preference polls do suck. Tasmanian elections analyst Kevin Bonham’s blog, August 11, 2013:
One problem with this is that many voters will actually follow what their party’s how-to-vote card says rather than decide for themselves …
Don’t get him started on the Fairfax/Ipsos poll. Bonham, yesterday:
I suspect that to the extent Fairfax/Ipsos is noticed at all, beltway observers think it’s that rather weird poll that comes out rarely, has the Greens too high, and bounces a lot.
But who cares about Newspoll, hey? Guardian Australia’s Katharine Murphy on Twitter, Saturday:
As the stupid Newspoll milestone looms …
It is so stupid, isn’t it Katharine? Murphy at Guardian Australia on Sunday:
The energy minister, Josh Frydenberg, has urged colleagues to “row together” as the Turnbull government approaches the milestone of what is expected to be its 30th negative Newspoll.
So very stupid. Murphy at Guardian Australia, March 13:
A Newspoll showed Labor would win any election held today …
Why would anyone write about it? Murphy at Guardian Australia, September 22, 2015:
Turnbull’s ascension to the Liberal party leadership has put the government back in front … The latest Newspoll published in The Australian … puts the government ahead on the two-party preferred measure at 51 per cent.