New England: Barnaby’s by-election victory isn’t Coalition’s biggest
Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull finally has an excuse to be happy. The Prime Minister in Tamworth, Saturday night:
This has been a stunning victory. Barnaby Joyce will be re-elected with what appears to be the largest swing to the government in the history of by-elections in Australia.
Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce put on a very good show at the New England by-election. The Weekend Australian online, yesterday:
... by 11pm on Saturday, with about 65 per cent of the votes counted, Mr Joyce’s lead was an unassailable 64 per cent. Labor’s David Ewings garnered just 11 per cent of the votes.
But the biggest by-election swing to a government in history? Nah, mate. Not by a long shot. The ABC’s New England by-election results, last updated yesterday:
Swing to the Nationals in the two-party preferred vote: 7.2 per cent.
The biggest by-election voter swing to the federal Coalition while they were in power was in the old federal seat of the ACT in 1970. Wikipedia (with data from Adam Carr’s Psephos blog):
Labor hold ... swing to the Liberals in two-party preferred: 13.4 per cent.
It wasn’t enough to win the seat but that huge swing must have given John Gorton’s Coalition some hope for the upcoming federal election. If only Billy McMahon hadn’t taken over ... The Australian, December 4, 1972:
Labor’s Prime Minister-elect, Mr Gough Whitlam, 56, flew to Canberra yesterday to begin taking over the reins of Australia’s second post-war Federal Labor Government.
Another huge by-election swing during Coalition rule was in 1981 where the Liberal candidate in McPherson won. Wikipedia (with data from Adam Carr’s Psephos blog):
Liberal hold ... swing to the Liberals in two-party preferred vote: 11.6 per cent.
But that almost 12 per cent swing didn’t do Malcolm Fraser’s government any favours at the following national ballot either. The Sun-Herald, March 6, 1983:
The Labor Party won yesterday’s Federal election and Mr Bob Hawke will be Australia’s next Prime Minister.
Enjoy the high while it lasts, Malcolm. The Prime Minister on Sky News’s Sunday Agenda, yesterday:
Look, it’s a big vote of confidence in the Government ... You get a lot of negative commentary in the media of course ... But what you’ve seen there is a resounding vote of confidence in Barnaby Joyce, in the Coalition, in the Government.
The other by-election you’re fighting isn’t really going your way. David Crowe in The Australian, Friday:
The government is very close to losing Bennelong. Liberal Party polling is said to show Kristina Keneally is neck-and-neck with John Alexander.
History tells us Barnaby’s by-election win will turn out to be a dead cat bounce. Dennis Shanahan in The Weekend Australian:
This is the end of Camelot. No matter whether Malcolm Turnbull survives to this Christmas or the next.
Look on the bright side, Prime Minister. You’re not in Trump’s shoes at least. Wall Street Journal, yesterday:
President Trump said Saturday he was “very happy” after his former national security adviser pleaded guilty to lying to federal agents and struck a deal to co-operate with special counsel Robert Mueller.