It gets messy when compassionista journalists collide with the punters they ‘educate’

Nine Entertainment’s newspapers serve up a poll result awkwardly at odds with last week’s emotive news coverage, The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald, February 17:

Labor has suffered a sharp fall in popular support after a week of incendiary political claims over border protection, with the party leading the Coalition by 51 to 49 per cent in its narrowest result in more than six months. Voters have shifted against Labor in significant numbers amid the escalating row over the refugee medical transfer law passed by parliament last week, cutting the party’s lead over the Coalition from the previous result of 54 to 46 per cent last December. The results, contained in an Ipsos poll conducted exclusively for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age, are a warning sign for Opposition Leader Bill Shorten over the power of government claims of a “dismantling” of the offshore detention regime and a fresh argument that the new laws will not stop accused criminals coming to Australia.

Is it possible the punters didn’t agree with Nine’s editorial writers either? The Age, February 15:

The historic defeat of the Coalition government on the floor of the House of Representatives over medical evacuations reflects rising community concern about Australia’s treatment of people seeking asylum. It does not represent a weakening of border protection, let alone an invitation to people smugglers to reboot their ugly trade. It is unfortunate legislation that can be seen as a rare triumph of collaboration and rationalism is likely to become part of an unseemly electoral battle. The Coalition is betting on the approach that worked for Howard in 2001, but there are signs Australian sentiment might be closer to 2007 when Rudd’s more compassionate approach helped him to victory.

SMH editorial, February 14:

It’s worth noting that the independents who have fought for this amendment represent a variety of electorates, in a variety of states. All say their constituents have told them of feeling safe enough from the risk of boat arrivals to treat sick asylum-seekers trapped on Nauru and Manus with more compassion.

But now an inexplicable poll result has forced Nine’s editorial writers to “reverse ferret”, SMH and The Age, February 18:

The outcome of the vote on the medical evacuations bill was ostensibly a disaster for Scott Morrison, who suffered the first loss in the House of Representatives for a ruling party since 1941. Yet voters appear to have taken a different message from the chaotic events in Canberra. Labor’s support for the legislative amendment has allowed the Coalition to conjure up latent concerns about the ALP’s record in 2012 and 2013 when thousands of asylum-seekers were encouraged to set out on boats for Australia and 1200 were lost at sea.

A neater option would have been to “dissolve the punters”, drawing on the ironic formula of the communist poet Bertolt Brecht, 1953:

… the people / Had forfeited the government’s confidence / And could only win it back / By redoubled labour. Wouldn’t it / Be simpler in that case if the government / Dissolved the people and / Elected another?

Or Nine could’ve just waited for a more trustworthy poll. Kevin Bonham, Twitter, February 18:

Punters know that Ipsos has smaller sample sizes than Newspoll, tends to bounce around a lot and has some weird results (eg with Green votes). Also its history is much shorter so they would probably trust it less anyway.