Victory for hard Right creates an unworkable team

Leak Cartoon

IT turns out Tony Abbott isn't just a weathervane when it comes to climate change: he is also a weathervane so far as who should be Liberal Party president.

After encouraging Howard government minister and close friend Peter Reith to stand for the position just weeks ago, on Saturday he voted for incumbent Alan Stockdale, who went on to win the ballot by a solitary vote.

Reith may not have put himself (or the party) through the bruising contest had he known the Opposition Leader's true intentions from the start.

Abbott wasn't shy about revealing his backflip. Putting the sanctity of the secret ballot to one side, he showed his ballot paper to Stockdale (to a healthy laugh) then to deputy leader Julie Bishop (who nodded approvingly).

It's worth noting Bishop's closest political ally, West Australian Liberal Danielle Blain, was one of the four vice-presidents who wrote to Stockdale two days before the vote declaring they were backing Reith. Some Liberals are claiming the vice-presidents' brazen letter tipped votes Stockdale's way. What isn't in doubt is the dysfunctional nature of the organisational team.

Stockdale won, yet three of the four vice-presidents who signed the letter are continuing in their roles. Surely they must resign after the vote of no confidence they publicly exercised against Stockdale.

Stockdale's win is a victory for the hard Right, Nick Minchin in particular, as well as anti-reformist tendencies within the party. It is also a victory for the decentralised structure of the federal Liberal Party, which diffuses power across state organisations at the expense of a strong central body (something Reith wanted to adjust).

It is a sign that federalism is creeping backin the post-Howard era (not that Abbott has ever been a fan of federalism). Reith wanted to give more power to party members in areas such as preselections. That is now less likely, with factional chieftains such as Minchin and his Senate acolytes retaining control.

Minchin might be retiring from the Senate this Friday, but his power hasn't waned. "Saturday was a sign of one thing: don't mess with Nick Minchin, even if you are Peter Reith," said a senior Liberal.

He orchestrated a one-vote victory for Abbott over Malcolm Turnbull in late 2009; now he has done it for Stockdale against Reith.

You wonder what numbers the climate change sceptic could muster were a vote to be had inside the Liberal Party on the proposition that climate change isn't real?