Stuck with the devil they know

ALEXANDER Downer told John Howard last Friday that a majority of cabinet ministers believed the Government's best election prospects were for a leadership transition to Peter Costello.

In reply, Howard told Downer that he would not be quitting. He said he would not be resigning the prime ministership before the election. It was a firm and visceral reaction, an act of assertion and a calculation by Howard that the Liberal Party lacked the guts or fortitude to depose him. Howard will have to be dynamited out of the job.

Downer's report to Howard came at the instigation of the Prime Minister. It is a critical point of the story. After the bad Newspoll early last week, Howard asked Downer to sound out cabinet sentiment on his leadership. Downer spoke to cabinet ministers and reported to Howard in Sydney on Friday before the APEC leaders meeting.

It seems Howard was surprised at Downer's report. While different versions of Downer's soundings are sure to be spread, the majority sentiment was for a change. One cabinet minister reported yesterday that the sentiment was "overwhelmingly" for change. Another said the mood was for change by a distinct majority. The word from another, on Howard's side, was that a variety of views were expressed and sentiment was equivocal.

But Howard was never intimidated. Just the reverse. A veteran of power contests, he is prepared to bet his own "will to power" against anybody else in the party. This process has been playing out over the past five days and Howard seems to be winning.

There is no suggestion that Downer told Howard to resign at that or any other time. Downer has not tapped Howard on the shoulder. Downer was fulfilling a request by Howard. From his public comments since last Friday, it is apparent that Downer supports Howard remaining PM.

The significance of these events is that Howard lost either the confidence or the preference of his own cabinet last week. There was a moment when his prime ministership seemed to be in real jeopardy.

This was unknown to the Liberal parliamentary party, which meets today presumably keen to put this period of confusion and pessimism behind it.

The evidence is that Howard's will is prevailing. After a series of discussions yesterday between Howard and Downer, and Howard and other ministers, the cabinet seems to be closing ranks again behind him. There is no sign that Costello is lobbying or that he will challenge.

Beneath the surface there is puzzlement, pessimism, confusion and anger.

One cabinet minister said to The Australian yesterday: "Why did he (Howard) ask for the soundings to be taken if he was not prepared to act on the conclusion?" A good question that is unanswered.

Some ministers think Howard may have flirted with resignation and gained such an impression from the discussions. Others believe that Howard was merely trying to test and consolidate his position.

Another cabinet minister told The Australian yesterday: "They (cabinet colleagues) seem to change their minds daily." That's a pertinent point, since cabinet and party opinion is highly volatile and devoid of any certainties.

Late yesterday Downer went public on Sky News with an unqualified endorsement of Howard. He said Howard was the "best person to lead our country" and the "best person" to lead the Liberals into the next election. But Downer also hinted at the events of last week.

"There was some introspection in the Government," he said in a huge understatement. "We considered all of our options during the week."

Just consider what that remark means.

Howard's will to power was on display at the joint media conference with Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper yesterday.

It was apparent that he wanted a question on the leadership. When it came, Howard jumped: "I hope people understand from observing me in 30-odd years of public life that I have never run away from a fight before and I don't intend to do so now."

The reality, presumably, is that the Liberal Party and its senior figures lack the political stomach to confront Howard and, critically, they lack enough confidence in Costello as the alternative. Where is the iron resolve to finish Howard as distinct from expressions of opinion?

The situation is intolerable yet it is going to be rendered tolerable. This is the Liberal Party's dilemma.

It is significant that Howard has not repeated his standard formula in recent days: that he will remain as long as his party wants him to stay. Incredibly, he hasn't been asked in the past few days whether he still had the support of hisparty.

Over the weekend, Howard appeared to have adopted a fresh formula. His new mantra operative since last Friday is that the leadership was settled last year. Of course, this is true. But it is a nonsense position. It cannot suffice as a satisfactory formula for the party or for an election campaign.

The obvious point is that July 2006 is not September 2007. Kevin Rudd was not Labor leader when Howard says the Liberals settled the leadership last year. Slight problem.

Late last week there was talk of killing the leadership issue by calling the election. Howard is no longer attracted to this notion. Yet it remains true: once the election is called, the leadership issue is terminated.

Of course, it is a rotten motive for election timing and would hand Rudd another gift.

The next stage in Howard's game plan will be to stress that he has (or more accurately regained) the support of his senior colleagues. This means putting the flutter of last week behind and ensuring the Government closes ranks tightly behind him.

It means converting the intolerable into the tolerable. A precondition for a viable campaign is that Howard has the support of his colleagues. He will prevail, surely, because a leadership change now is very late and very risky. Costello cannot act unless he is guaranteed success, and there is no such guarantee.

The Government's problem, however, is that more of the same just won't work. It needs, somehow, some way, a political circuit-breaker. Yet Howard's political energy over the past week (beyond APEC) has focused not on beating Rudd but on saving his own leadership.

The truth is inescapable: that a majority of his cabinet colleagues, if given the chance, would have taken a smooth transition to Costello. Some were convinced, others narrowly disposed towards change, and yet others equivocal or with Howard. But Howard killed the option of a smooth transition. History will judge him.