Wait for the uproar on a grand political bargain

Kudelka cartoon

THE Gonski review proposes a grand political bargain to transform funding of all schools in Australia - but the price tag of $5 billion guarantees a revolt from the states and threatens the report's strategy to "buy off" both public and private sectors.

David Gonski's grand concept of an extra $5bn a year in recurrent funding will come 30 per cent from the national government, leaving 70 per cent from the states. Wait for the uproar. There has been almost no consultation with the states and a huge conflict is guaranteed. The point is that the states, not Canberra, are the main funders of schools.

The extra money is pivotal to creating a new political compact to keep both public and private sectors in the Gonski tent. Without this new funding from 2014, the attempted grand bargain will collapse in old and bitter public-private recriminations.

Gonski's aim is to end the public-private school funding war. Its lobbies yesterday engaged in a fragile truce of sorts, waiting to see whether his concept holds up.

In many ways the fresh design offered by Gonski is highly impressive. It significantly assists government schools. It offers a new deal for students with a disability. It has a focus on disadvantaged students.

At the same time, it keeps the needs basis for private school funding. It doesn't penalise private schools for their private funding. It means no school is worse off and offers private schools a guaranteed minimum government contribution at 20-25 per cent of the new resources standard.

There is one big question: is the design fundable?

The caution of Julia Gillard and School Education Minister Peter Garrett suggests the national government has severe doubts. Yes, they are delighted with the report, but they refuse to endorse its design and seem alarmed at the $5bn price tag from 2014.

Gonski, however, advocates "incentives" to lock in the states over a 12-year deal. This means that in negotiation he wants the national government to offer to fund more than its current 30 per cent portion. It is a critical point. But this depends on the state of the national budget running into 2014 when the deal begins.

The related problem is the Gonski review is smart in its macro design but lacks the micro data to tell schools and students where they stand in this new design. Serious problem. The gap will be filled with panic and fear.

For example, the foundation of the report is a new schooling resource standard as the basis for funding all schools, with indicative figures of about $8000 for a primary student and about $10,500 for a secondary student. The report says these estimates are a "plausible" start point. But until the standard is finalised no school knows where it stands.

In this situation opposition education spokesman Christopher Pyne said Labor had effectively put every private school on a potential hit list.

But the head of the NSW Independent Schools Association, Geoff Newcombe, refused to endorse this ludicrous scare. "We can't see that in the model at this stage," Dr Newcombe said.

While the data is not available on any school-by-school basis, Gonski has striven to honour the Prime Minister's declared policy that no school will be disadvantaged.

On the contentious issue of a new indexation formula, Gonski gave an assurance to stakeholders yesterday that no school would lose a dollar due to such changes.

The independent sector, however, is worried about the mechanisms proposed to approve new schools. It fears this is a return to Labor's approach of halting the growth in private schools, a policy buried by the Howard government. The firmest message sent by Gillard and Garrett is that Labor will not approve a significant expansion of the national government's capital fund role. Again, this will generate tensions with the states.

The most alarming message in the Gonski review is not about funding. It is about standards. Gonski warns that "over the last decade the performance of Australian students has declined at all levels of achievement, notably at the top end". Australian schooling is on the slide. Standards are now "at serious risk". There is an equity issue and a standards issue.

The report says funding is a necessary but insufficient answer. Australian schools, the report makes clear, need changes in governance, culture, autonomy and teacher standards. This will not happen until the nation moves beyond the brawl about public-private funding. The question, however, is whether Labor is capable of taking the schools debate on to this new plateau.