Malcolm Turnbull has effectively declared “no confidence” in Barnaby Joyce as Deputy Prime Minister. The government has plunged into the worst sort of crisis — a deadlock between its two senior figures, Turnbull and Joyce, with lethal fallout. Turnbull wants Joyce gone as the deputy prime minister but Joyce is fighting for his political life.
Joyce’s position is untenable, and the only acceptable course is resignation.
Yet Turnbull cannot sack Joyce as Nationals leader. The risk is that a traumatised Nationals party might stand behind its discredited leader and defy the Prime Minister, turning this into a far deeper crisis.
By his remarks, Turnbull has put his prime ministerial authority on the line. By saying Joyce must consider his position, he has cast his own damning judgment on the Nationals leader.
Turnbull believes Joyce’s behaviour has crossed an unacceptable threshold.
What began this week as a Nationals trauma has become something far wider — a crisis for Coalition relations and the Turnbull government.
With Turnbull abroad next week, Joyce can no longer do his job — instead of serving as acting prime minister, he is taking leave at Turnbull’s suggestion.
Nothing better illustrates the untenable nature of Joyce’s position. Turnbull and he have widely different views of this event — Joyce believes he has broken no codes of ministerial conduct while Turnbull believes the issue is the “shocking error of judgment” in Joyce’s unacceptable behaviour.
Turnbull has pulled the rug from those Nationals who fought to save Joyce. Many will resent that; some will be unforgiving.
But the Nationals cannot remain in permanent defiance of Turnbull. The Turnbull-Joyce rupture can end only in Joyce’s demise, the questions being how long that takes, and how much damage is done in the interim.
Have no doubt, scars from this upheaval cannot heal easily. They will pose a long-run threat to Coalition stability.
Turnbull has not asked Joyce to resign. He has not asked Joyce to stand down as Nationals leader. He did not instruct Joyce to take leave next week. But his position is undisguised.
The depth of Turnbull’s angst and frustration with Joyce was revealed at his media conference yesterday. He is appalled at what has happened to his government, horrified at the character damage done and gravely concerned his political recovery this year has likely been ruined.
Every sign is that the Turnbull-Joyce relationship has broken down. The tragedy for the Nationals is that Joyce offered so much in electoral terms but was cast from the mould of Shakespearean tragedy. The Nationals will be diminished by these events, and that loss will also be carried by the Turnbull government.
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