Tony Abbott crippled by his own backbench

THE Abbott government now lives on borrowed time.

Australia has a fractured government, a backbench hostile to Tony Abbott, a demoralised ministry and the widespread expectation that, sooner or later, Malcolm Turnbull will probably become prime minister.

It is an untenable prescription for effective government. The backbench, in effect, has crippled Abbott in political terms. The Liberal Party will descend further into a cauldron of personal and political bitterness that will make any recovery unlikely.

On the first 2015 sitting day the Labor Party was rocking with ­euphoria.

This 61-39 result was not a vote for Abbott to lead the government to the next election. His supporters are adamant: this vote was about an extension of time — nothing more. “He has to change” said one minister who backed Abbott. “He has until after the budget at the ­latest to get an improvement,” said another minister who voted for Abbott.

Abbott said “this matter is ­behind us”. Yet this claim is wrong. There is deep scepticism about ­Abbott’s prospects of reviving his government’s fortunes. And his ­response to the vote seemed to play into his opponents’ hands. Abbott repeated his mantra: “I’ve listened, I’ve learnt, I’ve changed.”

But only actions count now and there was no real action. This is extraordinary political ineptitude. Maybe Abbott is planning sweeping changes that he declined to ­reveal. But there was no pledge to review all policies and all personnel, the sort of declaration that is needed.

Turnbull has played an astute hand. Aware that he probably lacked the numbers he never ­declared his candidacy, kept his hands clean of political blood and has seen a revolt not of his own making set up Abbott for removal in a second contest.

What is Turnbull’s strategy? It is to do his job and proceed as usual. It is to let the Abbott government unravel. But Turnbull is deeply conscious of the difficulty of any inheritance if the government’s standing sinks further. If offered the Treasury portfolio Turnbull would accept. The offer won’t be made and Abbott has ­declared confidence in Joe Hockey now tasked with preparing the 2015 budget amid the rancour.

The incredible dilemma the Liberals have created for themselves is revealed in Newspoll. It shows Abbott unpopular in the ­nation but more popular than Turnbull with Coalition voters. Newspoll has Turnbull leading Abbott by a huge 64-25 per cent among all voters but Abbott heading Turnbull 54-40 per cent among Coalition voters.

An Abbott-Turnbull contest is filled with traps since they are personality and political opposites representing different constituencies within the conservative side of politics. The threat to the government is obvious: that Abbott cannot win the public and Turnbull is too suspect with the conservative base.

This vote reveals more about Abbott’s weakness than Turnbull’s strength. It shows alarm about Abbott running so deep that many Liberals are prepared to close their eyes and punt on Turnbull without much notion about the policy and political changes he will bring. Abbott knows he is on notice. “This has been a near-death experience,” he told the partyroom after the vote. He is genuine about making changes — better consultation on Medicare, not buying fights with the Senate, a more collegial approach, a different budget message. Yet many of his colleagues remain unconvinced and want far more tangible proof he is travelling the road to Damascus.

These events have empowered Labor.

It mocked the government benches yesterday, no doubt gobsmacked the Liberals are repeating Labor’s self-destruction in office. Opposition Leader Bill Shorten, ironically, now attacks the Liberals over their disunity. The “chaos in government” asset the Coalition used to discredit Labor has evaporated.

At question time the government benches were sullen and subdued. The sense of defeat hung in the air. During questions and in response to Shorten’s parliamentary motion, Abbott seemed a diminished figure. Labor openly mocks his promises of stable, adult government with “no surprises”.

Much of the early part of Shorten’s speech was focused on Turnbull, a dangerous omen. Labor will seek to discredit Turnbull before he even returns to the leadership, and Turnbull, because he is not a declared candidate, cannot mount his own case.

Shorten’s mantra yesterday was that Turnbull “will say or do anything” to land the PM’s job.

Everyone knows the rules of the game from here. The internal anti-Abbott insurgency will continue.

The media orgy against Abbott will be intense and entrenched. Policy changes will be assessed not on merit but as survival ploys. Prospects for resolute action will be undermined by divided government. Just ask Julia Gillard.

Perhaps there is some chance the Liberal insurgents will exercise restraint.

Will they give Abbott a genuine extension? There are few grounds for confidence. This vote suggests that 40 per cent of the party believes Abbott cannot recover so that dictates little patience with him. Abbott needs to move fast and take radical decisions. That’s what John Howard would do.