The great conservative revolt

TONY Abbott's victory is a fundamental change in the power and ideology of the Liberal Party. It is a smashing win for the conservative wing that has outsmarted and outmuscled the progressives.

Though partly an accident, its meaning is unmistakable: it is a vote to sharpen the choices and divides in politics and force Kevin Rudd to a climate change election.

The people will decide the wisdom of this Liberal outcome. Abbott knows the consequence of his position is to provoke Rudd into an election on climate change. With a touch of Churchillian rhetoric Abbott declared he "was not frightened" of an election on the issue and warned: "I cannot promise a victory but I can promise a contest."

Malcolm Turnbull's tactic was to get Rudd's bill off the table, not force an election on it. This total reversal constitutes one of the gambles in the Liberal Party's history and it is, literally, an overnight eruption.

There is a bizarre touch of heroism and blunder in this outcome. The man long seen as too extreme to lead the Liberals has become leader at the point of historic disunity. The chalice could hardly be more poisoned.

Abbott prevailed 42-41 over Turnbull, signalling a fractured party unlikely to be repaired any time soon.

Yet Abbott's election, like that of any new leader, offers an opportunity. It cleans the slate. It means the public listens anew. It guarantees the Coalition base will be ignited in an unpredictable populist crusade with Abbott and Barnaby Joyce terrifying the nation about Rudd as a big spending, big taxing Whitlamite, reckless in his pursuit of climate change orthodoxies.

It is hard to imagine a more decisive break from Turnbull whose pre-ballot words make clear he thinks the Liberals have committed political suicide. Abbott's search for balance in his campaign to prevent open Liberal Party splits over climate change will be daunting if not impossible. But is there a touch of Labor hubris in its delight at Abbott's election? Greg Combet launched the logical attack, saying that "extremists, climate change deniers and conspiracy theorists" had taken control of the Liberal Party. Abbott's success depends on changing the politics of climate change and the momentum is shifting in his direction, though Abbott's is still a minority position. The truth is that Rudd now confronts an utterly different leader from Brendan Nelson or Turnbull. Abbott is a danger to himself and marginal seat Liberals yet he is also a danger to Rudd because he disbelieves the orthodoxy that action now on an emissions trading scheme is an election winner. Abbott will force Rudd to make the case all over again.

Abbott's election, a surprise result, changes the content and atmospherics of politics. Throughout his career, his policies have been polarising and his personality has been endearing.

Abbott, above all, is a conviction politician. Clever and populist, he is a social conservative, a Catholic, an economic regulator, foreign policy hawk, a natural pugilist, fitness fanatic, monarchist and an authentic, usually unable to conceal his beliefs or his blunders with spin.

While deeply rooted in the Liberal Party and devoid of any "born to rule" mindset, his ideological origins unquestionably lie with B. A. Santamaria, and Abbott, if he gets the chance, has an ability to reach out to Labor voters in a similar fashion to John Howard, whom he revered as a political father figure.

The problem for Abbott is that he is a hate figure among several constituencies: feminists, aggressive secularists, climate change believers and many middle-ground progressives. He has a serious problem with female voters. His election threatens to reignite the culture wars.

According to the government's legal advice, rejection of the carbon bill can become the second rejection under s.57, creating the conditions for a double dissolution. But Rudd will not dash to the polls. He is far likelier to take his time, build the attack against Abbott and re-launch a campaign to explain his ETS.

As Combet said yesterday, the government will stand by its extra $7 billion amendments to the scheme. These are policy and, if Labor wins the next election, would be put again as separate amendments to the original bill.

The only alternative to a double dissolution seems unlikely; that would be another Liberal revolt with those Liberal senators who support an ETS crossing the floor in defiance of Abbott's wishes. This would be serious defiance given the secret ballot in the partyroom after Abbott's victory showed opposition to the ETS by 55-29 votes.

The shift in the Liberal Party has been dramatic and is probably without parallel in the party's history. There were no chiefs and no grand plan behind this result. It is truly the Great Conservative Revolt legitimised by grassroot sentiment.

By delivering Abbott the leadership and breaking Liberal support for Rudd's ETS, it constitutes a double conversion of a minority into a majority position. It leaves the Liberal Party fractured by ideological, policy and personality divisions.

The key to this result was the inability of the progressives to unite, their votes divided between Turnbull and Joe Hockey.

The inability of Turnbull and Hockey to reach a tactical bargain was vital.

Last Thursday Turnbull told Hockey the best way to repel the conservatives was for Hockey to indicate he would not serve under them as shadow Treasurer. But such threats are not in Hockey's nature.

There is no doubt he was seen as the best compromise candidate. But Hockey made two decisions that ruined his prospects.

He refused to buckle to the Nick Minchin forces and sell out on his support for the ETS and he adopted a strange and unsatisfactory compromise of seeking a conscience vote.

The upshot was that the party polarised around Turnbull and Abbott. In the end Hockey failed to unify a party that was reluctant to be unified.

The first leadership ballot saw a total Turnbull-Hockey vote of 49 compared with Abbott's 35. The critical factor was that Turnbull outpolled Hockey. In the second ballot Turnbull polled strongly to lose by only 42-41, having been almost universally written off by commentators.

The reality, however, is that if the second ballot had been a Hockey-Abbott contest then Hockey would probably have won. The upshot is that Turnbull will probably leave politics, Hockey will become the heir apparent and the Abbott experiment has begun. Australia faces a Rudd-Abbott 2010 election over the economy and climate change.