PM must harness show of strength

Julia Gillard

JULIA Gillard has buried Kevin Rudd's quest to return as prime minister - but the personal rancour between the pair will never be healed.

Labor remains a bitterly divided house yet Gillard has won a new chance for political recovery. Her 71-31 victory margin is convincing yet its meaning is deceptive because it is more anti-Rudd than pro-Gillard.

Gillard must mobilise this performance of Thatcherite strength as a circuit-breaker from political woes that have defined her prime ministership. In the interim, she lives with the curse Rudd put upon her, in the words he delivered yesterday to caucus: "I refuse to stand idly by while the next generation of Labor leaders is wiped out."

The risk Gillard runs is a 2010 replay: just as the public never grasped why Rudd was deposed, it might not grasp why the party refused to recall him.

Purging Rudd was vital for Gillard but this does not address her main problems - broken trust with the public, misjudged policies and a minority-government system hated by the people.

Gillard's victory, however, is convincing, doubly so because it is her second partyroom victory over Rudd, following June 2010, and the margin is the greatest obtained by a sitting PM against a challenger in modern history. A restless Rudd is now consigned to the backbench, an untenable result for any length of time. While ever Rudd sits in parliament, he is a monument to Labor's past blunders and lost opportunities. His message is written in the sky - that Gillard cannot win and cannot regain the trust of the people. He does not need to criticise Gillard; his presence constitutes the criticism.

Gillard's message yesterday was explicit: "I intend to be a stronger and more forceful advocate."

She will put her stamp on government and project strength to compensate for lack of popularity.

Gillard said yesterday it was time to "honour" Rudd's achievements yet the Gillard camp's tactic last week was to blacken his name forever in order to kill off a second challenge.

Rudd's purging does not necessarily resolve the leadership question. Only a revival in Labor's poll rating can achieve that. If Gillard fails to recover, this ballot means a third non-Rudd candidate may emerge later in the term.

Gillard, however, has secured a tactical and psychological triumph. She forced the crisis, persuaded the caucus to defy the polls, won a convincing victory and has driven Rudd to the backbench. At each point, she outmanoeuvered Rudd.

Rudd was unable to secure a third of the caucus. The numbers once claimed by his supporters did not materialise. The anti-Rudd sentiment in caucus constitutes an apparent fixed majority and there is little reason to think it will dissipate down the track.

This result maximises Labor's prospects of a full-term parliament, critical to any hope of the government's revival.

Rudd says he is staying in parliament and accepts the caucus decision without grudges or malice. Yet the backbench cannot contain Rudd's energy. He will deeply miss being foreign minister, a job he loved. As long as Rudd sits in parliament, he will have a natural ambition to return as PM.

Gillard now leads a government of documented divisions, with five senior ministers voting to remove her yesterday. History suggests such schisms are not easily patched up.

This result shows Gillard's mastery of internal Labor politics but she is yet to show mastery of policy and judgment as Prime Minister.

Rudd's prospects of staging a second challenge seem remote. The caucus majority is too great and seems too entrenched.

Gillard's vote is greater than Malcolm Fraser's 54-27 victory over Andrew Peacock that finished Peacock's internal bid for the PM's job.

It is also greater than Bob Hawke's 66-44 victory over Paul Keating before Keating succeeded at a second attempt. On these numbers, Rudd would require 21 caucus members to switch in order to prevail in a second contest - a remote prospect.