A Liberal dose of hope

MALCOLM Turnbull is a natural leader: bold, clever and visionary. The question is whether he has the skill in human relations to unite a bitterly divided party.

In less than two years Australian politics has been transformed: it is now a contest between two modernists, Kevin Rudd and Turnbull, with stellar careers, successful wives, stable families and immense wealth. The rise of Turnbull has been stunning but only what Malcolm would have expected. Elected to parliament only in 2004, promoted into cabinet only in 2007, he has become leader in 2008.

Turnbull has lived politics all his varied life. His career is that of a polymath: journalist, solicitor, barrister, Kerry Packer's counsel, businessman, financier, grazier, OzEmail chairman, Goldman Sachs chief. At every step Turnbull left in his wake enemies and admirers. But as he matured, the admirers grew and the enemies dwindled.

Is he a natural politician? Turnbull's rampaging rise through a series of careers, any one of which would satisfy most people, conceals the unanswered question. Does he possess the judgment, temperament and mindset of a political leader? Politics is littered with the hulks of brilliant men who failed at the art.

Turnbull, once again, has bulldozed his way to the top, confounding his critics. It is remarkable how swiftly the Liberal Party fell to his assault.

For most of John Howard's final term, the notion that Turnbull would became the authentic successor seemed utterly improbable. It required a series of events: the demise of John Howard, the repeated refusal of Peter Costello to accept the succession and the unconvincing performance of Brendan Nelson.

Nelson was never going to prevail against Turnbull. If Nelson had survived yesterday, the reprieve would have been temporary. For the Liberal Party, entering the next election under Nelson, a populist devoid of governing credibility, would have been a folly.

Turnbull's ascent, therefore, is the culmination of his own will to power and the historic weakness of the Liberal Party after the 2007 defeat. This is the real Liberal leadership transition. It completes the purging from the election debacle. This is a historic vote because Turnbull, provided he lasts, will fashion a different Liberal Party. The transition from Howard to Turnbull is a change in generation, outlook and style. It implies a new political strategy.

Turnbull, like Howard, is strong on economic management and pro-market reforms. But, unlike Howard, he is a social progressive and less a cultural traditionalist. Turnbull champions the republic, backed the Aboriginal apology, advocated Kyoto ratification and favours a better deal for gays. This is a leap beyond Howard's economic liberalism-social conservatism vote-winning methods. But it raises abiding questions about how the Coalition creates a new majority position post-Howard. There is no easy answer to this question.

Remember, much of the Liberal Party rank and file is deeply conservative. And what happens to the Howard battlers? Turnbull has charm when it is not terminated by his impatience, and that charm will be needed. If Turnbull is smart he will recall Howard's dictum that the Liberal Party is a broad church with two wings, conservative and liberal. The leader's task is to cultivate both sides of the church.

The quality the Liberal Party expects from Turnbull is what Nelson lacked: credibility. Turnbull looks and sounds like a credible PM. If his leadership can rebrand the Coalition from the rabble of the past nine months into a credible Opposition, then the nature of politics will alter. That depends, above all, on Liberal unity. Turnbull is famous for his killer instinct. What is more important now are team bonding skills, a quality for which he is not famous.

It will be difficult for many pro-Howard conservative MPs to accept Turnbull. The victory margin 45-41 is narrow. This reflects a party divided over the Turnbull personality as well as the ideology. Such MPs, however, should recall that it was Howard's support for Turnbull and his rapid promotion of Turnbull that made possible his victory yesterday, a point that gets far too little attention.

With the global financial crisis deepening and likely to dominate the next two years, Turnbull has a distinct chance. He must invest the Coalition with serious economic credentials against the Rudd Government. Turnbull will try to outmuscle Rudd on the emissions trading scheme. Given his credentials on the economy and climate change, Turnbull is a far more formidable opponent for Rudd on the ETS. The coming weeks, however, will be dominated by the battle over the Turnbull narrative. What story will prevail in the public's mind: the rich bully who expects to get his way or the self-made man who triumphed from a troubled background?

There has never been a Liberal leader like Turnbull. This can be a problem or a gift. Turnbull, who turns 54 next month, is steeped in the Liberal Party but he is not a tribalist. Indeed, during the past 25 years he has floated through a series of multilayered Sydney networks based on media, politics (Liberal and Labor), law and business in a milieu that was sometimes casual, sometimes smart, but always brutal in its rivalry.

The toughest men in the land taught him: try Kerry Packer and Neville Wran. As a Sydney networker he knew both Labor and Liberal. He took risks, backed his judgment, became an astute opportunist and ruthlessly punished his opponents. He was a willing recruit for some Labor causes: witness Paul Keating's recruitment of him to chair the Republican Advisory Committee, a platform from which Turnbull fought a heroic campaign to win the republic.

In the end he was damned by many republicans, none of whom made anything approaching Turnbull's contribution and who made the absurd claim that Turnbull had been the architect of defeat (unlike those who actually supported the monarchy).

He has the culture of Sydney's eastern suburbs pulsating through his veins from Point Piper, where he lives, to the salt and sand of North Bondi, where he swam as a boy. It is a background very different to that of Peter Costello, who launched his book yesterday in a bizarre juxtaposition. Costello, in effect, delivered the leadership to Turnbull, a politician whom he long dismissed as an amateur. What on earth was Costello thinking yesterday? It defies the imagination.

Turnbull sailed into the leadership that Costello had sought for so long without success. The Costello leadership saga began in 1994, when he became deputy leader, a decade before Turnbull entered parliament. Now the prize belongs to Turnbull, won just three hours before Costello launched his memoirs.