NSW state election: voters switched off long ago

Gladys Berejiklian and Michael Daley. Picture: AAP

Eleven days out, this NSW election is there for the taking. But no one is grasping the nettle and grabbing the advantage.

Get ready now for a frenzied last week of selling and the possib­ility that the voters will, in effect, choose to elect no one, thus creat­ing the first minority government in NSW since 1995.

It is absolutely extraordinary that, since February last year, there have been three Newspolls conducted in NSW and the two-party-preferred vote has not moved a point either way.

It’s almost as if, as some in polit­ics have unkindly put it, the governme­nt of Gladys Berejiklian has been in caretaker mode for two years; with the numbers being 51-49 to the Premier shortly after she came to office.

Through these two years of virtual zero poll movement, there has been the stadiums controversy; a controversial federal leadership change; controversies over delays in the light rail projects; hundreds of millions of dollars in handouts in the form of cash rebates offered by the state government; an opposition leader who fell to sexual harassment claims; and billions more promised in the city and the bush. But there is just no moving of the meter as the electorate fails to buy the vision of either Berejiklian or Labor leader Michael Daley, despite­ the billions on offer. The voter­s have switched off and only a last-minute flick of the “on” switch can prevent a hung parliament.

The refrain around the government for some time has been, “we would rather be us than them”. It’s a dangerous attitude in a sense, but this poll indicates there is some truth to it.

Marginal seat polling shows many electorates sitting on the 50-50 or 51-49 mark. Berejiklian just has to minimise losses to six or seven seats to form minority government, without worrying that Daley is in the game. If she can lose just five she will have a majority, but this seems unlikel­y.

The election is shaping like a close grand final — a race to be won in the last minute. Whoever has the best last week may triumph. Whoever fails to slip up in the last week may fall over the line — even if that is, almost­ certainly, in minority.

Daley needs to win eight or nine seats for a reasonable shot at govern­ment in a coalition with independen­ts and/or the Greens (which requires better than a 50-50 result).

Berejiklian is in the best spot to move the meter in the last week when it comes to the story to tell: unemploy­ment at 3.9 per cent, infrastructure as far as the eye can see, and reminding the voters of the bad old Labor government.

But the federal Liberal brand and low wages growth creating cost-of-living pressures is not helping the Premier, whose tactics, strategy and salesmanship in the campaign have been poor.

All bets after this poll, should be on a minority government.

So when they say “I’d rather be us than them”, they may well be right; but you would rather be an independent MP in the lower house of the next parliament than almost anyone else. Because your bargaining power in two weeks’ time may be something to behold.