Coalition re-election fortunes hover between zip and zero

PM Malcolm Turnbull and Home Affairs Minister Peter. Picture: Kym Smith

At Monday night’s cabinet meeting, only Julie Bishop dared to mention the herd of elephants stampeding around the room, by urging colleagues to set differences aside and get on with it. ­Nobody responded, not even Peter Dutton, who the night ­before had helped nail down the latest version of the energy policy.

Dutton was constructive, he laughed at jokes, his contributions were just right — not too little, not too much. Normal, everyone said. Early Tuesday, Dutton ­attended the leadership meeting in Malcolm Turnbull’s office to discuss the day’s agenda and tactics. It was convivial — not a hint from Dutton he was plotting a challenge. Nor did the Prime Minister let on, even to his closest colleagues, that ­within minutes he would ­declare his and Bishop’s ­positions ­vacant.

Soon after, it was time to kiss everything goodbye, with irrefutable proof climate change does cause wildfires. Days shy of his third anniversary, when it looked as if we could say arrivederci to the Italy of the Pacific, Turnbull was mortally wounded. Dutton’s 35 votes exposed the fragility of the Prime Minister’s position after what turned into his worst week in office, thanks to a guerilla/gorilla campaign and his own missteps.

After several of Dutton’s ministerial backers gave ­assurances they would not vote for a spill, it appeared Turnbull had bought some time. Hardheads know these ­assurances are not worth the paper they are written on and, in any case, the damage to Turnbull and the government is immense and irreparable.

The Coalition’s re-election prospects hover between zip and zero. Whatever Turnbull’s mistakes, voters will not reward this level of disunity, nor will they sanction another bloody leadership coup. Not long ago Dutton shared that view.

Dutton is contemptuous of Bishop — and the feeling is reciprocated — so he was never going to heed her caution. He wasn’t even listening to one of his closest friends, except when he belatedly released a fulsome, in the truest sense of the word, tweet on Sat­urday declaring support for ­Turnbull.

In a new chapter for The Road to Ruin last year, I wrote that while Dutton was committed to doing whatever he could to help Turnbull succeed — which he has — if the leadership came into play, he would not retreat to allow Tony Abbott or Bishop or anyone else to get in front of him, that he would run and run hard. I also wrote that probably his best friend in politics, Finance Minister ­Mathias Cormann, who has been critical to the government’s successes, would stand by Turnbull. Cormann pledged then and again to colleagues late yesterday he would play no part in any move against a prime minister because he believed no good could come of it.

Cormann also promised himself he would leave parliament if his colleagues were mad enough to do it again. He is profoundly disillusioned and disappointed with the state of the party and politics.

Standing beside Turnbull yesterday to announce the end of his beloved company tax package, Cormann publicly pledged his ­ongoing loyalty to Turnbull. Reports last night that Cormann had withdrawn his support, or that he had resigned, were refuted. However, according to sources, a meeting between Cormann and Turnbull last night ended with Cormann’s position uncertain. Equally despondent is fellow West Australian Christian Porter, whose marginal seat of Pearce looks dodgy again. Although Porter has the talent to one day lead the party, or what is left of it, he has also declared he will not be complicit in tearing down an elected prime minister.

Dutton has not acted as ­Abbott’s proxy, although senior Liberals are convinced Abbott has used him. Dutton has appeared willing to be used. Instead of filling the ears of his crew with wax then ordering them to tie him to the mast, he submitted to the Sirens. If he had listened well to their songs he would have heard their portents of gloom and doom.

It is possible Turnbull could survive, at least for the short term., but only if a number of scenarios hold. As leader, Turnbull decides when a party meeting is held to ­decide the leadership. Even if ­Dutton and supporters call for a spill today, Turnbull could dismiss it unless it transpires his support has eroded. If he can resist the pressure and stave off another confrontation for at least a fortnight when parliament resumes he will. That would give MPs time to fully absorb the views of their electors and Dutton time to reshape. Or he could trip up like he did when he flagged taking the GST off power bills, which Labor — already salivating over a campaign on hospital cuts and Medicare co-payments, which Dutton cham­p­ioned as health minister — says would blow a $30 billion hole in the budget over 10 years.

Turnbull could also trip up, leaving it open for other candidates. Bishop, who knows she is gone if Dutton wins, has told Turnbull she will not challenge him. But if he cannot survive, she would run. Others, ­including some who voted for Dutton, want Morrison to run, ­believing he would do better electorally than Dutton.

Leadership contests come with a lot of huffing and puffing; ­however, three Nationals MPs — Darren Chester, Damian Drum and Kevin Hogan — have told ­senior Liberals they will sit on the crossbench if Dutton succeeds. Ex-football coach Drum gave the joint partyroom an earful on ­Tuesday, describing the behaviour of some of his colleagues as “f..king ­disgusting”.

If conservatives who loathe Christopher Pyne convince Dutton to punish him, then Pyne will most likely quit his seat — either forcing a by-election or ensuring the seat is lost at a general election.

If Dutton prevails, the Governor-General may insist before swearing him in that he proves he has the confidence of the house. Failure would force an early ­election.

The Liberals’ 10-point primary vote drop at the Longman by-election spurred Dutton’s shift. He was on the booths that day, getting the feedback directly from voters. Queenslanders told other colleagues Turnbull was toxic. One urged him by text to resign ­immediately. Senator James McGrath, Turnbull’s key numbers man in 2015, hopes Dutton will save the Liberal National Party in Queensland; however, he has not played an organisational role in Dutton’s leadership bid.

While Victorian Liberal frontbencher Michael Sukkar continues his support for Dutton, others are certain any Dutton saves in Queensland would be more than offset by losses elsewhere, particularly in Victoria and SA. They rattled off Chisholm, Dunkley, Corangamite, Higgins and Latrobe, although there, where gang violence is an issue, local member, Jason Wood, voted for Dutton.

“Victoria is not a big-C conservative state,” one of them said. “It might be economically conservative; it is not socially conservative. Dutton would be like kryptonite to Superman.”

Abbott’s hunger for revenge, his actions as a homegrown political terrorist, helped create this ­opportunity for Dutton, and that is precisely what troubles Liberal MPs, even moderates. They abhor what Abbott has done and several resist voting for Dutton ­because of it. They reckon Abbott knows Dutton would lose the election, then Abbott could offer himself as a proven opposition leader capable of bringing down a government. Abbott could not govern to save himself but he sure knows how to kill prime ministers.