Trump looms large over conservative leaders seeking ascendancy

Last year began with certainty that Brexit was a pipe dream and US presidential hopeful Donald Trump would be knocked out in the Republican primaries by an ­establishment candidate. But then the year’s political events shook the liberal international order and ­delivered a counterpunch to decades of political correctness when Britons voted to leave the EU and Americans catapulted Trump into office.

Conservative European leaders are praying that 2017 will be the year of revolt and the Trump effect will become a transatlantic phe­nomenon. Australian politicians are questioning whether Malcolm Turnbull, a resolute centrist, can weather the political storm, or new leadership is needed to ­restore classical liberal economics and more conservative social values to the Liberal Party.

In the coming year, centrist parties across the West are hoping to contain the Trump effect and return to the status quo. But 2016 breathed new life into conservatism, and years of anti-conservative bigotry by the activist judiciary, media and academia have produced a critical mass keen for revolt. Among them, conservative senator Cory Bernardi.

As the year drew to a close, Bernardi lashed out at Tony Abbott for criticising the idea of a new conservative party made up of Liberal defectors. Many believe that Bernardi is preparing to form a breakaway group this year. If he chooses to leave the Liberal fold, Bernardi’s immediate challenge will be to create a point of difference to distinguish his party from Pauline Hanson’s One Nation. To stand a chance of significant electoral success, he also would have to attract the two major groups that commonly ­express dissatisfaction with the Liberals under Turnbull: small-government classical liberals and social conservatives.

In his column last week in The Australian warning of the coming challenge to the Liberals, Abbott emphasised the need to support a strong centre-right politics in Australia rather than bet on a novel ­alternative. The problem is that centre-right politics has become mired in centrism, a political ideology forged by the postwar liberal consensus that has dominated the West for a quarter of a century.

It is evident that the age of centrism is nearing its end. Many voters, Left and Right, are demanding politicians who represent the ­opposite of centrist ideals. They are keen for a return to more protectionist economics because they perceive protectionism as a boon to the urban and rural working class and, by ­extension, the national interest. They are rejecting politicians who portray themselves in the centrist fashion as temperate cosmopolitan pragmatists. ­Instead, values-driven conviction politicians from Donald Trump to British Labour’s Jeremy Corbyn are in the ascendancy.

Conservative leaders across the West are keen to capitalise on the transforming world order. The leading rebel statesman against EU hegemony is Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. He has declared this the year of ­rebellion. Nationalists hoping for electoral success in 2017 include Geert Wilders (Party for Freedom, The Netherlands), Marine Le Pen (National Front, France) and Frauke Petry (Alternative for Germany). If present conditions prevail, Wilders stands the best chance of victory. His ­recent conviction for criticising Moroccan immigrants will probably bolster his popularity among voters who feel oppressed by PC culture. A Wilders win could precipitate a continental revolt against supranational governance given his election commitment to a Dutch referendum on EU membership.

Although emerging conservative parties differ on policy, they share common principles that will influence macro politics in 2017. These include: restoring the primacy of Western civilisation and culture by defending democracy, fundamental freedoms such as free thought and speech, and the sovereign rights and wealth of the people against supranational, Islamist and communist ideologues. The emerging “rebel” conservatives differ from neoconservatives by favouring a less interventionist foreign policy to focus on pressing national issues such as debt reduction, secure borders, a more selective immigration intake, refugee programs that give priority to pro-Western individuals, and the elimination of PC culture by defunding the activist media, academia and third sector.

Every major political party and movement emerging as part of the conservative revolt has made the protection of sovereignty central to its politics. Sovereignty is widely understood to require ­secure borders, rational immigration policy that serves the political, social and economic interest of the citizenry, and an increased focus on vetting and deporting asylum-seekers hostile to Western values. In 2015, Trump called for a moratorium on Muslim immigration to contain the jihadist threat. Following the jihadist ­attack on a Berlin Christmas market, Orban defended ­European Christians by demanding border closures and deportation of ­illegal immigrants. The popular desire for pro-Western immigration and refugee policies is ­becoming more pronounced.

The most radical political transformation of the coming year may occur in international relations. Early signs indicate that this year, leading conservatives could transform the liberal international order. The postwar consensus produced the ideal of liberal internationalism under the steward­ship of the UN.

How­ever, the UN has become hostile to its liberal philosophical origins. In the 21st century, its leaders have denounced Western sovereignty, border security and democracy while defending the interests of ­Islamist and communist regimes. While supranationalists in the UN and EU routinely express bigotry against Western conservatives, ­Israel is the favoured state target of choice. Following the UN Security Council’s adoption of resolution 2334 against Israeli settlements on ­December 23, Trump fired a warning shot on Twitter: “As to the UN, things will be different after Jan. 20th.” That is the date of his ­inauguration. There are increasing calls for Western states to withdraw from the UN and form a new international coalition in ­defence of the free world.

In the closing days of 2015, I suggested that Trump was the man to watch. In 2017, Trump will begin to create the economic, ­social and cultural conditions conducive to a conservative renaissance by reasserting American exceptionalism. If the Trump ­effect becomes transatlantic, it will favour nationalist politicians such as Wilders, whose victory could speed up the disintegration of the EU. But I am betting that the man to watch in 2017 is another dark horse: the wildcard of 2017 will be a Western pivot to Russia’s Vladimir Putin.