Brexit: Power shifts as Tories willing to back Corbyn

Theresa May’s parliamentary humiliation not only means her Brexit deal is dead — it also signals a fundamental shift in the dynamics of British politics.

For the past two years, British politics has been dominated by the Brexiteers — big beasts like Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg — who were prepared to vote against May’s government rather than let the EU continue to dominate British life.

But the Brexiteers are the key swing group no longer. Now it is the Tory Remainers — people like Dominic Grieve, Nick Boles, Oliver Letwin and Nicky Morgan, former Conservative ministers with minuscule public profiles and of whom most Brits have never heard — who have become the fulcrum of power.

That is because they are willing to vote with the Labour Party to impose resolutions and even legislation to limit their own government’s actions.

They will do anything to prevent a no-deal Brexit — that is, Britain trading with the EU under WTO rules.

Because the EU will not countenance any deal May could get her Conservative Party to agree to, probably the only way she can deliver the Brexit scheduled for March 29 is through a managed no-deal, perhaps with a transition period. But if she explicitly embraces a no-deal Brexit, Remainer cabinet ministers will resign and others will vote with Labour to try to make this option illegal.

If this fails, and it’s by no means clear such legislation could bind a government in an international negotiation, some may well vote against their own government in a no-confidence motion.

The tension is unbearable because time is so short. If parliament passes a no-confidence motion, the government has 14 days to see whether it can sustain itself in parliament.

The opposition can try to form a government but it’s inconceivable that Tory Remainers would vote to install Jeremy Corbyn as PM without even an election.

After 14 days, the government must dissolve parliament and call an election, which cannot take place until another 25 business days have elapsed. That makes January 30 the effective deadline for a no-confidence motion to produce a newly elected government even a week before Brexit day.

We face the most intense parliamentary fortnight since Winston Churchill took over from Neville Chamberlain in World War II.

The most likely alternative therefore is for May to beg the EU to extend the March 29 deadline.

But what price would Brussels exact for that?