Trade pact may prove hiccup in trans-Tasman relations

The immediate consequences for Australia of Winston Peters’ nomination of Jacinda Ardern as New Zealand Prime Minister is that Julie Bishop is going to have to be “super polite” and the surviving trans-Pacific trade pact could be reduced to just 10 members or revised within 10 days.

The reality is that given the closeness of the trans-Tasman relationship, the unexpected success of New Zealand Labour will mean little change and both sides will regard it as “business as usual”.

But the sight of the overturning of a conservative government at the hands of a young, media-savvy and protectionist Labour leader with the support of a populist, protectionist, independent queen-maker won’t be lost on Australia.

Malcolm Turnbull was quick to send his congratulations to Ardern and she was quick to declare she would visit Australia as soon as possible.

Even the Australian Foreign Minister, who “declared war” on New Zealand Labour during the election campaign over the revelations of Barnaby Joyce’s New Zealand citizenship, went public quickly with her congratulations.

Bill Shorten was faster in his fraternal public congratulations and Penny Wong demanded that Bishop “undo the damage” of her remarks.

New Zealand will also be in a position to ensure Bishop pays for her overstepping of the mark, but even that won’t last long.

Despite Ardern’s success already being muttered about in New Zealand as its Brexit moment, there is an expectation that she will be able to form a stable and enduring government.

Ardern’s declaration that the concessions she made in negotiating with New Zealand First and the Greens were in keeping with Labour’s election campaign policies also suggests there won’t be big shocks.

But there is immediate concern for any New Zealand policy in relation to the Pacific trade pact already monstered by the US withdrawal and the prospect other nations could pull out of the already much-reduced TPP.

There are negotiations on the trade pact in Tokyo in about 10 days and despite Ardern’s early reassurances last night that New Zealand wasn’t looking to pull out, Labour’s attitude and that of New Zealand First are at the opposite end of the spectrum to Australia’s.