Newspoll: Shorten’s tax strategy is paying dividends

Labor’s decision to announce its share tax grab before the Batman by-election was gutsy.

For Malcolm Turnbull, Labor’s decision to protect pensioners from Chris Bowen’s $59 billion grab by axing cash refunds for tax on shares is “policy on the run”; for Bill Shorten it’s exercising political plan B.

For both it is another test of political strategy and electoral strength. So far, despite huge risks, Labor is besting the government on both.

Since the plan was announced three weeks ago the Coalition has concentrated on pensioners losing cash refunds for tax paid on shares, and accused Labor of picking on the poorest and most vulnerable.

The Prime Minister and his senior colleagues were convinced the tax grab would alienate Labor voters and give the Coalition a lift in the latest Newspoll, perhaps even heading off the dreaded 30th losing Newspoll survey in a row that Turnbull used to remove Tony Abbott as leader.

Although Labor won the Batman by-election after announcing the tax policy, it still talked about an expected hit in Newspoll and began sending clear signs pensioners would be “protected”.

While the Newspoll confirmed that 50 per cent of voters opposed the abolition of franking credit cash refunds for retirees, the political poll delivered a rattling disappointment to the Coalition and another bonus to Labor.

Labor’s primary vote went from 38 to 39 per cent — the highest it has been since Turnbull replaced Abbott in 2015 — and the two-party preferred vote remained stuck at 53 to 47 per cent in Labor’s favour.

Voters, particularly older ones, didn’t like the policy but it wasn’t enough to push votes in Turnbull’s direction. Whether people are disconnected, disenchanted or disappointed it doesn’t matter for the Coalition because they are not moving from Labor or One Nation to the government.

Labor’s decision to announce the share tax grab before the Batman by-election was gutsy, and vindicated Shorten’s leadership and helped justify the policy.

Labor’s decision to leave announcing the “backdown” or “strategic retreat” of the guarantee until after the Newspoll survey has delivered a double bonus: more evidence the ALP’s vote has gone up after the policy was unveiled and cruel denial of any Coalition hope.

As Labor’s pensioner protection plan became obvious yesterday, Turnbull continued to target Shorten and said pensioners knew “Labor is coming after their income”.

But as of today Shorten will trumpet his pensioner guarantee and wait for Turnbull’s 30th losing Newspoll with even greater confidence that people are not listening to the Coalition.