Malcolm Turnbull to blame for his endangered leadership

Peter Dutton is being thrust forward as an alternative leader as ministers lose faith in Malcolm Turnbull.

Malcolm Turnbull is under pressure from within his Liberal Party ranks. Picture: Kym Smith

Malcolm Turnbull is on notice that he will face ministerial resignations and a leadership challenge unless there are drastic changes to the national energy guarantee and an improvement in Newspoll.

There are talks between ministers about replacing the Prime Minister and the recognition that if there is to be a challenge it will have to be before the end of September.

For months conservative MPs have urged Peter Dutton to stand against Turnbull, but there is no challenge yet and the Immigration Minister remains loyal to his leader.

The rebellion of conservative MPs, including Tony Abbott, Barnaby Joyce and Andrew Hastie, over Turnbull’s proposed deal with the states to provide more ­reliable and cheaper electricity is the immediate cause of leadership destabilisation.

But discontent with Turnbull is much wider than just his handling of the NEG, and even dropping his preferred Paris emissions target from the legislation may not head off a leadership crisis.

Dutton is being thrust forward as an alternative leader as ministers lose faith in Turnbull. Dissatisfaction, already high because of the removal of Abbott, the hits on superannuation, and the blunder on Catholic schools funding, is rising dangerously.

The by-election results last month, particularly in the Queensland seat of Longman where Labor won and the Coalition’s primary vote dropped further, and continuing poor Newspoll results, including Turnbull’s 38th losing survey in a row to the ALP on a two-party preferred basis, have alarmed ­Coalition MPs.

For some time, ministers have discussed a possible leadership change as conservatives fear an electoral wipeout at the next election that could hand Labor up to 20 seats, including 10 in Queensland.

The Coalition’s primary vote has crashed since the last election, and defectors are not returning.

Dutton, as the most senior Queensland Liberal, has obvious appeal in the north but has managed to use his hardline on immigration and law and order to garner support elsewhere, including in Victoria.

Right now there is no challenge: Dutton has not declared and there are unlikely to be any calculated or public moves next week or before the two-week sitting in the middle of September after the NEG legislation has gone to the Coalition partyroom, parliament resumes and the next Newspoll is published.

Throughout the Liberal Party, at state and federal levels, and within the federal parliamentary party, there is an acceptance that the political process for leadership challenge has begun. Turnbull is not helped by the deep divisions among his Nationals partners.

There will be false starts and feints, positioning among contenders and counter moves from Turnbull and his supporters in the next parliamentary week, and a lot of media speculation. In this situation it is possible a leadership crisis begins by accident or misadventure.

Turnbull’s leadership is on the line, his handling of the diabolic complexity and political conflict in the NEG deal will be crucial to his survival, but this moment of political life or death has come about ­because of an accumulation of poor political judgments, a lack of connection with the public and an alienation of conservative voters and key voting blocs.

Dutton’s declaration this week that while he was in cabinet he was bound to support government policy and the leader, makes it axiomatic that the moment he resigns a challenge will be under way.

In the meantime, there will be public displays of shadow boxing and a behind-the-scenes exercise of the dark arts to discredit and ­derail any potential contenders. But Turnbull is on notice.