First a ‘no harm’ budget, then comes the poll dancing

Unless the Turnbull government drastically redraws the traditional budget schedule and negotiates a nightmare election timetable next year, today’s budget will be the last before the election.

The political importance of this budget is far greater than the government is prepared to admit. It will decide if the next election will be held this year or next.

Scott Morrison’s third budget will also determine if a “mini-budget” is required early next year to top up public support ahead of Malcolm Turnbull’s favoured election option of May 2019.

The Treasurer is intent on producing a budget that “does no harm” and builds the conditions for a strong economy while limiting the success of Labor’s own tax package.

The unspoken political objective is to lift the Coalition’s public stocks, build political momentum and have the government in front of Labor by August-September.

If the budget’s big infrastructure spending and limited tax relief builds confidence while credibly showing a return to budget surplus, it will allow for an election to be held in September-October this year.

The Prime Minister insists the election will be held in the first half of next year — “12 months away” — and government ministers have said there will be another budget.

But, there is no chance — there is not even a way — for a May budget to be held before the last possible date for a combined half-Senate and House of Representatives election on May 18, 2019.

For such an election to be held on that date it has to be called, according to constitutional and electoral requirements, by April 13 next year.

That would mean the first week of the election campaign would be in the Easter week and be followed by Anzac Day and school holidays across the nation.

Bringing the election date forward to early April or late March clashes with the fixed-date NSW election on March 23. Conducting twin campaigns federally and in NSW would be politically difficult and March 23 is officially ruled out as a federal election date.

To go earlier in the year and avoid overlapping with the NSW election campaign, the Turnbull government would have to go to the polls at the end of February or the very beginning of March, which would mean calling the election in January soon after Australia Day.

These options preclude a February-March parliamentary sitting and limit any real chance of another budget, which the government can bring down when it wishes.

The mid-year economic forecast and outlook — the budget checklist due in December — could be dressed up as a mini-budget as Howard-Costello did but its impact would be lost over Christmas and be a sign of failure for today’s budget.

Hence, despite the government’s wishes and claims, this is likely to be the last budget before the next election, which could be as early September-October if the polls improve for the Coalition.